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Wisconsin Senate 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidates: Russ Feingold, Incumbent

Republican candidates: Ron Johnson, Businessman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 14th, 2010

In and out of Wisconsin, there is considerable surprise that 18-year Senator Russ Feingold is in serious trouble, trailing in virtually every poll to self-funding businessman and Tea Party candidate Ron Johnson. To Feingold’s credit, he is running a candidacy based on who he actually is and how he has actually voted. To his detriment, voters in the Badger state no longer appear to want his kind of liberal populism, at least in this GOP wave year. As in West Virginia, Feingold is being hurt by low ratings for President Obama, and also by the deep unpopularity of retiring Gov. Jim Doyle (D). The Republican candidate for Governor, Scott Walker, is also favored over his Democratic foe, Tom Barrett. Wisconsin Senate goes from Toss Up to Leans R.

Update: October 5th, 2010

Republican Ron Johnson is doing extraordinarily well against longtime Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Another self-funder, Johnson has an appealing media persona and has led a series of polls outside the margin of error, as Wisconsin appears to wobble from Blue in 2008 to Red in this midterm year. But Feingold is a tough pol who has won under tough circumstances before (especially in 1998) and he cannot be written off easily or quickly, whatever September surveys may say. At the same time, during a recent trip to Wisconsin, we noted that quite a number of keen election observers said that they believed Feingold would lose—something they could not have imagined six months ago.

Update: May 20, 2010

Sen. Russ Feingold (D) probably only had a contest if former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) had decided he wanted one more whirl at the ballot box. Thompson said no, as he usually does to entreaties that he run for further office. This will not be an especially Democratic year in Wisconsin, and it’s possible one of the second-tier Republican candidates, Dick Leinenkugel, of beer fame, could surprise Feingold if he gets the party nomination. We’ll keep our eye on it, and it’s a very late primary (Sept. 14), but for now, this race is Leans Democratic.

Update: April 8, 2010

Just like the situation in Washington state, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) only has a contest if former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) decides he wants one more whirl at the ballot box. Thompson toys with running for things frequently, but usually thinks better of it in the end. We’ll see.

Update: February 19, 2009

Russell Feingold (D-WI): Feingold is a stickler for ethics and campaign finance propriety, and as such, Republicans always hope to catch him off guard by overpowering him in expenditures. But Feingold appears to be strong as he seeks a fourth term. Only U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) is potentially a tough foe. Ryan seems headed for bigger things on the GOP stage, in the House and elsewhere, and he may not want to wager it all on this risky venture. DEMOCRATIC HOLD. If Ryan runs, COMPETITIVE.