Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R
Democratic candidates: Sam Granato, Utah Alcohol & Beverage Control Commission chair/deli chain owner
Republican candidates: Mike Lee, attorney
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 24, 2010
Tuesday’s results in the Beehive State are an unalloyed victory for the Tea Party, as well as conservative groups like the Club for Growth and the website RedState.com. The biggest news unfolded at the Republican state convention in May, when three-term U.S. Senator Bob Bennett (R) was ousted in a grassroots rebellion of anti-Washington voters. Bennett finished dead third, and attorney Mike Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater—both of whom had some substantial Tea Party backing—were sent into the party primary. Bridgewater had actually placed first at the convention, and nearly received the 60% of the vote needed for outright nomination. Therefore, he was considered a slight favorite in the primary. Bennett considered Bridgewater the more acceptable choice for his seat, and the more moderate elements in the Utah GOP coalesced behind him. By contrast, Lee is a fierce conservative, and he was championed by those who want a major shake-up in the Senate’s way of doing business. (GOP Senate nominees Rand Paul in Kentucky and Sharron Angle in Nevada benefited from similar intensity.) This contest went down to the wire, and was the closest statewide result in all of Tuesday’s primaries. Lee edged Bridgewater by 51.1% to 48.9%, a margin of about 4,000 votes. In one of the two or three most Republican states of the Union, Lee is all but guaranteed victory in November, and at age 39, he could serve for a long time in a state that normally reelects its incumbents. Since 1958, for instance, senators from Utah have served an average of 22 years—and no one has been as young as Lee. SAFE REPUBLICAN
Update: June 17, 2010
We’re sure it matters who is the next senator from Utah, if you live in Utah. But if we could set up three parallel universes, and have ousted Sen. Robert Bennett (R), and the GOP contenders for his seat in the primary to be held June 22, Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, cast Senate votes for the next six years, we’d wager that at least 95% of the votes would be identical. All this fuss over less than 5% of the votes.
Update: May 20, 2010
Outside his overwhelmingly Republican state, political observers are still scratching their heads about the out-and-out repudiation suffered by three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett (R) in early May, when GOP convention delegates squashed his bid for another term and gave him an embarrassing 27% of the vote. But Utah Republicans are among the most fiercely conservative in the nation, and they came to regard Bennett as a creature of Washington who had voted for the bank bailout and even worked on occasion with—gasp—Democrats. Businessman Tim Bridgewater and attorney Mike Lee finished first and second, respectively, at the convention, and are headed for a June primary. Despite talk of a write-in campaign by Bennett in November, the GOP primary winner will be the next senator from Utah. SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
One day somebody will have to offer a convincing explanation as to why solidly conservative GOP Senator Bob Bennett is in such trouble among his fellow Republicans. It could just be generalized anger against a Beltway-identified, longtime incumbent. In any event, it doesn’t matter much since, should Bennett lose the Republican nomination, he’ll simply be replaced by a Republican who will vote virtually identically to Bennett.
Update: February 26, 2009
Robert Bennett (R-UT): Bennett should seek and win his fourth term unless he surprises us with a retirement announcement. And why would he? At 77, he’s a mere child in the senior reaches of the Senate–not to mention Utah, where clean living habits appear to yield long life. Young Turk Republicans are talking up a possible primary challenge to Bennett from David Leavitt, the brother of former Utah Governor Mike Leavitt (R), and state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff is also ambitious–though he is likely to run only if Bennett doesn’t. Democrats have no one except Congressman Jim Matheson (D-UT), and it would be foolish for Matheson to give up his hard-won seat for a long-shot Senate bid. REPUBLICAN HOLD.