Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidates: Joe Sestak, congressman
Republican candidates: Pat Toomey, former congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update October, 14th 2010
In the Keystone State, Democrat Joe Sestak has shown no real ability to catch up to Republican nominee Pat Toomey in what has turned into a very GOP year in normally Blue Pennsylvania. Accordingly, we are tilting Pennsylvania Senate from Leans R to Likely R.
Update: May 20, 2010
After 30 years in office, party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter was finally given his walking papers by Congressman Joe Sestak in Tuesday’s party primary. Specter lined up the big boys, from the White House to the statehouse, to make the party change stick. But rank-and-file Pennsylvania Democrats in a closed primary remembered the Specter who was warmly endorsed by President George W. Bush. They also saw an elderly, halting Specter who was well past his prime after several serious illnesses. The question now is whether the script for the general election has truly changed. Former Congressman Pat Toomey, the GOP Senate nominee, would be too far to the right in most years to win statewide here, but if 2010 lives up to its billing as a Republican year, Toomey might well win. Most observers in the Keystone State thought that Specter fatigue would carry Toomey into the Senate. But now there’s no Specter for Toomey to lean on. Sestak is a different type of foe, and this race just got a lot more unpredictable. Until the dust settles, it’s a TOSS UP.
Update: April 8, 2010
It looks likely that party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter, now a Democrat, will defeat Congressman Joe Sestak in the upcoming party primary. Specter lined up the big boys, from the White House to the statehouse, to make the party change stick. But the general election could be a different story. At 80 and having been ill off-and-on for years, Specter is no longer the indestructible force that has kept him in the Senate since 1981. Observers with near-perfect predictive records in the Keystone State have told the Crystal Ball that they sense two things: a GOP year and Specter fatigue among the critical swing independents. Specter’s hope to beat the prognostications is that the GOP has selected former Congressman Pat Toomey, arguably too far right for this moderate state and less than a dynamic campaign presence.
Update: November 19, 2009
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-turned-D) may or may not be nominated by his new party, and Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak is a tough foe, though currently behind Specter in the primary polls. Despite the backing of President Obama and Governor Ed Rendell (D), Democrats aren’t sure Specter is actually one of them–and the left is enthusiastically supporting Sestak. Awaiting either Specter or Sestak in the fall is former Congressman Pat Toomey (R), originally not considered an especially threatening contender but, if the GOP has a sweep in ‘10, a possible winner.
Update: June 25, 2009
Democratic leaders may well be able to get Arlen Specter the party nomination for reelection, yet if he is defeated in the primary, the nominee will be Congressman Joe Sestak, who gives every indication that he will run. Whatever early polls may show, our bet is that either Specter or Sestak will dispense with former Congressman Pat Toomey, the likely inheritor of the GOP nomination who seems too far right to get elected statewide in the increasingly Blue Keystone State. Former Gov. Tom Ridge, a moderate, could have won this seat for the GOP, but he opted out. Would the right-wing party base have nominated Ridge? We’ll never know.
Update: February 26, 2009
Arlen Specter (R-PA): Heading towards thirty years in the Senate, Specter is the great survivor. He is too Republican for an increasingly Democratic state, and too liberal for a firmly conservative Republican party. Nearly defeated in a GOP primary by Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in 2004, Specter has to worry about another primary challenge from the right, possibly Toomey again (though he has vacillated and appears to be leaning more to the Governor’s race), wealthy radio talk show host Glen Meakem, or longtime conservative activist Peg Luksik. Some conservatives are even touting Congressman Jim Gerlach (R), despite his moderate positions on social issues, believing that Gerlach could more easily defeat the despised Specter. So far, Gerlach is leaning more to the Governor’s contest. Conservatives are furious that Specter was one of three GOP senators to back the Obama stimulus bill. Assuming Specter survives the primary, he’ll have a hard-fought general election contest against the eventual Democratic nominee. Television talk show host Chris Matthews considered running, and then understandably decided his well-paid media perch was superior. (Why run for senator when you can interview all 100?) The Democrats have a deep bench of congressmen from every region of the Keystone State, so a nominee shouldn’t be hard to find. Congressman Patrick Murphy or Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz might well run for the Democratic Senate nod, and state Auditor Jack Wagner is another possibility. A state Board of Education member, Joe Torsella (D), is all but announced, too. Specter’s health is delicate, and he has beaten cancer, a brain tumor, and goodness knows what else. He’ll also be 80 years old in 2010. Yet in recognition of his toughness, we still tilt the contest towards him. He’s earned it, at least at the outset. LEANS REPUBLICAN.