Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R
Democratic candidates: Jim Rogers, retired teacher
Republican candidates: Tom Coburn, incumbent senator
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: February 26, 2009
Tom Coburn (R-OK): If there is one senator who is completely unpredictable, it is Tom Coburn. Should he run for a second term, he’ll very likely win it. Not only is he a Republican in a deeply Red state, but he has attracted grudging support from some Democrats and enthusiastic backing from many Independents for his principled stands on pork barrel spending and other topics. If Coburn decides to call it a day and go back to his medical practice, then Democrats will actually have a decent shot with Governor Brad Henry (D-OK), assuming he is open to a candidacy. Still, everyone remembers that Oklahoma was John McCain’s best state (almost 66% of the vote) in November 2008, replacing former top GOP performers like Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. Various Democratic and Republican congressmen and statewide officials might jump in if Coburn and Henry opt out, and it’s too soon to say which ones. REPUBLICAN HOLD if Coburn runs, TOSS UP if Coburn retires.