Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Elaine Marshall, North Carolina secretary of state
Republican candidates: Richard Burr, incumbent senator
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5th, 2010
We’ve always had Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) winning reelection, but because this is the cursed seat to which no one has been reelected since 1968 and since many polls had Burr barely ahead of Democratic nominee Elaine Marshall, we cautiously kept it at Leans R. It is now obvious that Sen. Burr is going to be reelected, probably handily, so we are raising the rating to Likely R.
Update: June 24, 2010
The national political party hierarchies on both sides have had difficulty in this anti-establishment year in selling local activists on all their choices. The Tar Heel State gave us another example on Tuesday in the Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate. For a year, D.C. pooh-bahs have been pushing former state Sen. Cal Cunningham as a telegenic veteran who could take down U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) this November. Most of the Democratic top brass enthusiastically agreed with the Cunningham pick. Problem was, Cunningham was seen as too conservative by the actual Democratic voters who showed up in North Carolina’s very low-turnout election. They preferred Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who finished first in the primary by a considerable margin, 36.4% to Cunningham’s 27.2%. With strong African-American support, Marshall cruised to a crushing victory in Tuesday’s runoff, garnering 60%. Republicans were delighted, and they had been hoping to face Marshall rather than Cunningham. The incumbent Burr, with a fat war chest of $5 million running in a GOP-leaning year, has a very good chance of breaking the jinx that has cursed this seat for decades. No incumbent has been reelected to it since 1968, when the legendary Sam Ervin (D) won his final term. In fact, this is the most unstable seat in the entire Senate. Nonetheless, we have long leaned it to Burr, and by the fall, we wouldn’t be surprised if our rating changes to “Likely Republican”. LEANS REPUBLICAN
Update: May 20, 2010
Sen. Richard Burr (R) holds the least secure seat in America, having turned over to the opposite party just like clockwork every six years since 1980. Despite low name recognition, Burr is in a good position to break the jinx. Top-flight Democratic candidates took a pass, and with the unpopularity of President Obama and Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) in the Tar Heel State, one can sense a GOP year on the march. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham finished one-two in the early May primary, and are fighting each other in a resources-draining runoff. Burr is sitting on millions. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
Sen. Richard Burr (R) holds the least secure seat in America, having turned over to the opposite party just like clockwork every six years since 1980. Despite low name recognition, Burr is in a good position to break the jinx. Top-flight Democratic candidates took a pass, and with the unpopularity of President Obama and Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) in the Tar Heel State, one can sense a GOP year on the march.
Update: November 19, 2009
In North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) has dodged the toughest Democratic challengers. Most recently, Congressman Bob Etheridge (D) turned aside national party pressure, and refused to run. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall may well be the Democratic nominee. It is a surprise that stronger Democrats aren’t jousting to be the nominee since this seat has changed party hands every six years since 1974. Burr has the burden of beating this remarkable curse. Burr’s personal and job approval ratings are consistently mediocre, not so much from built-in dislike of him as from a lack of knowledge about him. Burr is widely viewed as competent yet also very low-profile.
Update: June 25, 2009
North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) got an enormous break when state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) decided not to challenge him. The Tar Heel State has been edging Democratic, and Cooper could have beaten the first-term Burr in this seat where no incumbent has won a consecutive term since Sam Ervin (D) finished his long tenure in 1974. Now Burr is much less shaky–though who had ever heard of state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) before she popped up to defeat the nationally known Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in 2008? Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and other Democrats are considering jumping in.
Update: February 26, 2009
Richard Burr (R-NC): Democrats are on a roll in North Carolina, with a stunning trio of 2008 victories for Barack Obama, Gov. Beverly Perdue, and Senator Kay Hagan (defeating Sen. Elizabeth Dole, once thought to be invulnerable). Despite all that, the last remaining major GOP officeholder in the Tar Heel State, first-term Sen. Richard Burr, will not be easy to dislodge. He’s got a good reputation, comes across well in the media, and tends to his constituencies. Two statewide Democratic figures, Attorney General Roy Cooper and former Treasurer Richard Moore, have been mentioned as possible Burr opponents. One of the many Democratic House members from North Carolina could also run, especially U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, ex-quarterback of the Washington Redskins and a Blue Dog who represents part of western North Carolina. This is unsettled as yet, and Burr will have to work hard for reelection, thinking of Dole–who was often absent from the state–as a cautionary tale. It’s actually worse than that, and you, dear reader, won’t believe this, but the last time a U.S. senator holding this seat was reelected was 1968. (Trivia answer: He was Democrat Sam Ervin of Watergate fame.) All of Ervin’s elected successors got one term each as the seat wobbled between the parties–Robert Morgan (D), John East (R), Terry Sanford (D), Lauch Faircloth (R), and John Edwards (D). Truly, this is a berth for which the occupant should rent an apartment and not buy a house in D.C. For now, we’ll list it as LEANS REPUBLICAN but if the Democrats play their cards right, and 2010 is a decent year for them, Burr will have to fight history to get a second term.