Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe D
Democratic candidates: Kirsten Gillibrand, incumbent senator
Republican candidates: Joe DioGuardi, former state representative
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 7, 2010
Interim appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand was beatable. She had been selected in a divisive process by New York’s much-disliked interim Governor David Paterson (D), and in a Republican year, she certainly could have been beaten by a first-class GOP standard-bearer. Instead, also-rans and yesterday’s men competed for the R label, with little-known former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi emerging from the primary as the lamb for slaughter. Some Republican sources insist that DioGuardi has a shot because Gillibrand is so weak, but we’ll be surprised if he upends her.
Update: May 20, 2010
The most puzzling contest in the nation is in New York, where a weak, appointed senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (D), is running virtually unopposed for election to the two years remaining in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Senate term. The only explanation is that Gillibrand has the right Democratic friends at the top, and the state GOP is now something of a joke. First, the White House and Senator Chuck Schumer muscled out all serious Democratic challengers, some of whom could have beaten Gillibrand. Then every prominent Republican, fearing the Schumer machine, bowed out, including former Gov. George Pataki and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Gillibrand was appointed by scandal-drenched Gov. David Paterson, by the way, who was forced out of the race for a full term and is currently sitting somewhere in the 20s in public approval, on his way to the teens. That alone would be a killer issue against Gillibrand, except for one thing: You can’t beat somebody with nobody. SOLID DEMOCRATIC HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
The most puzzling contest in the nation is in New York, where a weak, appointed senator, Kirsten Gillibrand (D), is running virtually unopposed for election to the two years remaining in Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Senate term. The only explanation is that Gillibrand has the right Democratic friends at the top, and the state GOP is now something of a joke. First, the White House and Senator Chuck Schumer muscled out all serious Democratic challengers, some of whom could have beaten Gillibrand. Then every prominent Republican, fearing the Schumer machine, bowed out, including former Gov. George Pataki and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Gillibrand was appointed by scandal-drenched Gov. David Paterson, by the way, who is currently sitting somewhere in the 20s in public approval, on his way to the teens. That alone would be a killer issue against Gillibrand, except for one thing: You can’t beat somebody with nobody.
Update: February 19, 2009
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): APPOINTED SENATOR. Among the many splendid subplots unfolding around the country in the wake of the 2008 election was the search for a senator in New York. Gov. David Paterson (D) needed to find Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s replacement, and an awkward quest it became. To nearly everyone’s surprise, the hyper-private Caroline Kennedy announced her candidacy and began a statewide tour. She self-destructed in a torrent of revelations about her non-voting habits, her tendency to say ‘ya know’ every five milliseconds, her taxes, and other unpleasant items, some fed to the press by Gov. Paterson’s own staff. (On the ‘ya know’ front, we were reminded of Uncle Ted Kennedy’s moment of self-immolation in a TV special hosted by Roger Mudd when the 1980 presidential cycle began in earnest. Ted was unable to answer the straight-forward question, ‘Why do you want to be President?’) Of the four states in need of temporary appointments (Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, and New York), only the Land of Lincoln proved a greater embarrassment thanks to Gov. Blagojevich’s alleged attempted selling of the Senate seat, the Roland Burris farce, et al. The gubernatorial appointments were somewhat bumpy everywhere, but Paterson’s process was so drawn out it felt like the Olympic trials. Paterson managed to irritate a wide range of actual and potential candidates, and especially the Kennedy clan–irate that Caroline was ‘dissed’ in her quest for high office. Finally the Governor settled on Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand of the Hudson Valley area, who had served a mere two years in the House of Representatives. It was obvious that Paterson chose her because she was (1) a woman, to replace another woman; (2) an upstate resident at a time when upstaters felt ignored and had no prominent statewide elected official; and (3) relatively moderate and might strengthen the 2010 Democratic ticket–which Paterson will presumably lead as he runs for his first elective term. Whether Gillibrand can raise the tens of millions of dollars needed to compete in two years (and then again in 2012, when she would have to run yet again for a full six-year term) remains to be seen. Some liberal Democrats were unhappy with her National Rifle Association ties, and pro-gun control Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy threatened a primary challenge in 2010. Others may jump in, too, such as Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. In order to stave off a liberal primary challenge, Gillibrand has been abandoning her conservative positions on gun control, immigration, and gay marriage so quickly and completely that she is starting to resemble a human weather vane. Republican hopes may center on former Gov. George Pataki or Congressman Peter King, a moderate-conservative who is often used on national TV talk shows. New York is a deeply Blue state, but the voters of the Empire State are willing to elect the occasional Republican when they want to send a message to the Democrats, or when Democrats are badly split. We’ll see. New York is too Democratic to call this a Toss-Up, at least not yet, but we’ll watch developments carefully. LEANS DEMOCRATIC HOLD.