Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Paul Hodes, congressman
Republican candidates: Kelly Ayotte, former NH attorney general; Ovide Lamontagne, New Hampshire Board of Education chair
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update October 14th, 2010
In the Granite State, Republican Kelly Ayotte is having little trouble with Democrat Paul Hodes. New Hampshire Senate from Leans R to Likely R.
Update: September 16, 2010
The Granite State produced a nip-and-tuck contest between former state AG Kelly Ayotte and conservative activist Ovide LaMontagne. Ayotte had been the early favorite, but in the end she seems to have squeaked to victory by a slim 1,667 vote margin out of over 100,000 votes cast. The lines were blurred here, with Sarah Palin backing Ayotte and the Tea Party mainly coalescing about LaMontagne. A case could be made that the GOP was split asunder by a very tough four-way Senate free-for-all—but it appears the assertion has less foundation that one would think from the close outcome. The pendulum swing of 2010 is very evident in this Purple Northeastern state, and Republicans are reasonably well positioned to hold the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R) and pick up the House seat of the Democratic Senate nominee, Congressman Paul Hodes. The primary results haven’t changed our Senate rating of Leans R.
Update: May 20, 2010
Another national bellwether, the Granite State has swung back and forth between the parties of late. This year’s swing is to the GOP. The early bet is on the GOP nominee, probably former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte but possibly businessman Bill Binnie, to succeed fellow Republican Sen. Judd Gregg. Democrats have a first-rate candidate in Congressman Paul Hodes, though, so this is not necessarily a runaway. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
Another national bellwether, the Granite State has swung back and forth between the parties of late. This year’s swing is to the GOP. The early bet is on the GOP nominee, probably former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, to succeed fellow Republican Sen. Judd Gregg. Democrats have a first-rate candidate in Congressman Paul Hodes, though, so this is no runaway.
Update: November 19, 2009
In two other states where a Republican senator is retiring, New Hampshire and Ohio, the likely GOP nominees (ex-Congressman Rob Portman and ex-state attorney general Kelly Ayotte) are somewhere between slight favorite and even-money bet, depending on whose polls and analysis you believe. Portman will likely face Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D), while Ayotte’s opponent will be Congressman Paul Hodes (D). Democrats are confident they can elect Fisher and Hodes, but the Buckeye and Granite States are sensitive barometers of the national drift, which could be in the GOP’s direction in 2010.
Update: June 25, 2009
With Sen. Judd Gregg’s retirement, his New Hampshire seat is ripe for the plucking by Congressman Paul Hodes (D). The GOP knows it, and has been desperately trying to get Gregg (R) to reverse course, to no avail. Former Sen. John Sununu (R), defeated by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2008, also doesn’t want to run. Former Congressman Charles Bass (R), who lost his seat in 2006, is preparing to launch a bid, but he starts as the underdog. The same status awaits appointed state attorney general Kelly Ayotte (R), should she run and be the GOP nominee.
Update: February 26, 2009
Judd Gregg (R-NH): OPEN SEAT. This Senate seat has had a wild ride over the past few weeks. When Senator Judd Gregg (R) was named Secretary of Commerce-designate by President Obama in early February, Obama, Gregg, and Democratic Gov. John Lynch reached a deal to keep the seat in GOP hands for the next two years (the remainder of Gregg’s elected Senate term). This prevented Democrats from securing a possibly filibuster-proof 60th Senate seat by the back door of appointment. Gregg secured the post for his former House chief of staff, J. Bonnie Newman. She was generally described as a moderate Republican. Newman agreed not to run for a full term in 2010, which would have produced an open seat vulnerable to Democratic takeover. Then Gregg shocked the White House, and everyone else, announcing on Abraham Lincoln’s 200th birthday that he was withdrawing from the Commerce appointment because of an unbridgeable gap in ideology between a conservative Republican and a liberal President. Democrats feared their chances of a turnover would evaporate, since Gregg would likely be reelected. Then Gregg quickly said he would “probably not” seek another term. Assuming that is true, Democrats are back in the game. When Gregg began his elective career in 1978, the Granite State was as Republican as any state in the Union. After stints in the U.S. House and as Governor, Gregg made it to the Senate in 1992. But rock-ribbed Republican New Hampshire started to change dramatically during the 1990s and the first decade of the 21st century, partly because of in-migration from liberal Massachusetts. Now the Democrats have the Governorship, the other Senate seat, both House seats, the state legislature, and just about everything else worth taking, not to mention victories for John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008. Gregg’s GOP Senate colleague, John Sununu, was shown the door by former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) in 2008. All of this may have nudged Gregg out the door. For the 2010 Senate nomination, Democrats might have a choice between their two congressmen, Paul Hodes or Carol Shea-Porter. The strongest Democrat, Gov. John Lynch, has decided not to run for the seat. But either Hodes or Shea-Porter could possibly win, assuming economic conditions in 2010 are not hostile to Democrats. Hodes appears to be the preferred candidate of many party leaders, and he’s already announced that he is a candidate. For the Republicans, former Senator Sununu may try for a comeback, and he would be a formidable candidate in the right environment. If Sununu doesn’t run, or even if he does, former U.S. Rep. Charles Bass and former Gov. Steve Merrill are other GOP possibilities. One New Hampshire newspaper has even encouraged almost-Senator Bonnie Newman to throw her hat into the ring. Bonnie, we hardly knew ye. Since we don’t know the party nominees yet, we can only call this a TOSS-UP.