Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidates: Harry Reid, incumbent senator
Republican candidates: Sharron Angle, former state Assemblywoman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: September 16, 2010
Even from the East Coast, you can hear the gnashing of teeth in Nevada as voters try to decide between two less-than-perfect choices. Just as in Colorado, there is a desire to send a message to the governing Democrats, especially because Nevada’s unemployment rate is the highest in the nation (14.3%). What better way than by voting against President Obama’s prominent ally, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D)? Reid has become deeply unpopular with consistently low poll ratings. But an easy Senate victory for the GOP evaporated when the Republicans nominated the highly controversial Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle, whose positions and statements include wanting to “phase out” Social Security, store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain (not exactly a popular proposition in Nevada), and a potential resort to “Second Amendment remedies” if Congress continues on its present course. There is a “none-of-these-candidates” option, a unique Nevada ballot feature, which may enable the winner to secure less than a majority. To our surprise, though, polls have shown only about 3% choosing to thumb their noses at both candidates in this fashion, and a mere 1% are voting for a thrird-party or independent candidate. Voters seem to sense that the stakes are high, and it is possible they may determine which party controls the Senate. An entrepreneur might be able to make some good money by selling clothespins outside Nevada’s polling places in November.
Update: May 20, 2010
The question everybody is asking is, can Harry Reid pull out a miracle reelection? The Senate Majority Leader knows how to win a close one—he got another term in 1998 by a few hundred votes—and he’ll have a record amount of money to spend and the full resources of the White House on his side. No sane person counts him out, yet Nevadans seem determined, at least in the spring, to send him packing. It’s a combination of anger over health care reform, Obama second-thoughts (even though the president carried the Silver State), and most of all, a grassroots revulsion toward Congress, which Reid helps to run. Three little-known Republicans are running, former state party chair Sue Lowden, businessman Danny Tarkanian (son of the coaching great), and conservative activist Sharron Angle. Any one of them could win the nomination. Lowden was a clear favorite until her infamous blunder suggesting that people could barter for health care (“chickens-for-a-check-up”). Angle is a Tea Party favorite and has been moving up quickly. Still, this one is basically a referendum on Reid. No doubt, this wily survivor will try to make it a referendum instead on his eventual opponent. LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.
Update: April 8, 2010
The question everybody is asking is, can Harry Reid pull out a miracle reelection? The Senate Majority Leader knows how to win a close one—he got another term in 1998 by a few hundred votes—and he’ll have a record amount of money to spend and the full resources of the White House on his side. No sane person counts him out, yet Nevadans seem determined, at least in the spring, to send him packing. It’s a combination of anger over health care reform, Obama second-thoughts (the president carried the Silver State), and most of all, a grassroots revulsion toward Congress, which Reid helps to run. Three little-known and mainly underwhelming Republicans are running, but this one is a referendum on Reid. No doubt, this wily survivor will try to make it a referendum instead on his eventual opponent.
Update: November 19, 2009
Probably the biggest surprise in Democratic vulnerability is Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Majority Leader. It is the top Senate position that has Reid in trouble–the “Daschle effect,” referring to the 2004 defeat of Democratic Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. Conservative states do not seem to take well to their senators serving as a partisan battering ram for the liberal party. In early polls Reid is losing handily to two second-tier GOP candidates, real estate developer and son of a legendary basketball coach Danny Tarkanian and GOP state chair Sue Lowden, the likely eventual nominee. Yet no one should cavalierly write off the wily, long-term incumbent. Reid has raised over $11 million and already is airing reelection TV ads. He will almost certainly set a spending record for Nevada, and he will have every resource the Obama White House can supply him.
Update: June 25, 2009
The Majority Leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, continues to be on shaky ground in some respects, despite an eye-popping show of financial force during President Obama’s May fundraising visit to the Silver State. However, Harry Reid is a classic case of a theoretically vulnerable incumbent. You can’t beat somebody–and a Majority Leader is a big somebody–with nobody. The GOP has no strong candidate at present, and if Congressman Dean Heller gives the contest a pass, Republicans will be back to square one.