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Missouri Senate 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidates: Robin Carnahan, MO secretary of state

Republican candidates: Roy Blunt, congressman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 14th, 2010

In the Show-Me State, Republican Roy Blunt is now considered well ahead of Democrat Robin Carnahan. Missouri Senate from Leans R to Likely R.

Update: May 20, 2010

Another place where anti-Obama sentiment has tilted a Senate contest is the Show Me State. If this were 2006 or 2008, we’d bet on Secretary of State Robin Carnahan to pick up the Senate seat of the retiring Kit Bond (R). But instead, it is likely to go to a senior House Republican, Roy Blunt, father of one-term Gov. Matt Blunt (2005-2009). LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.

Update: April 8, 2010

Another place where anti-Obama sentiment has tilted a Senate contest is the Show Me State. If this were 2006 or 2008, we’d bet on Secretary of State Robin Carnahan to pick up the Senate seat of the retiring Kit Bond (R). But instead, it is likely to go to a senior House Republican, Roy Blunt, father of one-term Gov. Matt Blunt (2005-2009).

Update: June 25, 2009

Sen. Christopher Bond (R) is leaving the GOP in the lurch in Missouri. So far, the near-certain Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is leading the likely GOP nominee, senior Congressman Roy Blunt, who at least appears to have avoided a nasty primary with former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and ex-Ambassador Thomas Schweich. (Steelman still has not officially bowed out.)

Update: February 26, 2009

Kit Bond (R-MO): OPEN SEAT. More bad news for Republicans: The retirement of Senator Bond after four Senate and two gubernatorial terms means that yet another GOP seat is open to a Democratic takeover. The most likely Democratic nominee, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, has a famous name via dynasty–her father was governor, her mother a U.S. senator, and her brother a current U.S. House member. African-American Congressman Lacy Clay (D) has also been making noises about running. New Governor Jay Nixon (D-MO), who lost to Bond for the Senate back in 1998, will work hard to turn Bond’s berth to Blue. Still, as John McCain’s squeaker win in 2008 showed, the Show Me State is highly competitive and certainly not a lost cause for the GOP. Congressman Roy Blunt, father of former Gov. Matt Blunt (R-2005 to 2009), is the early frontrunner for the GOP nod, but former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman is potentially a strong challenger–and she’s running. A Carnahan-Blunt or Carnahan-Steelman match-up would be barnburner and a national headliner. TOSS UP.