Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Charles Melancon, congressman
Republican candidates: David Vitter, incumbent senator
Other candidates: Ernest Wooton, State Representative
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
It’s a measure of just how Republican the post-Katrina Bayou State has become that the incumbent GOP senator, David Vitter, has been able to survive a seamy prostitution scandal and be the favorite in his reelection bid. Democrats (and some Republicans) regard Vitter, a “family values” candidate, as a shameless hypocrite, and he’s not one of the more popular members of the Senate on either side of the aisle. Still, it will take a small miracle for Democratic Cong. Charlie Melancon to defeat him. President Obama hurts Democrats a great deal here. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
It’s a measure of just how Republican the post-Katrina Bayou State has become that the incumbent GOP senator, David Vitter, has been able to survive a seamy prostitution scandal and be the favorite in his reelection bid. Democrats (and some Republicans) regard Vitter, a “family values” candidate, as a shameless hypocrite, and he’s not one of the more popular members of the Senate on either side of the aisle. Still, it will take a small miracle for Democratic Cong. Charlie Melancon to defeat him. President Obama hurts Democrats a great deal here.
Update: November 19, 2009
Most GOP Senate incumbents appear robust politically, but there are two potentially competitive contests. Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) still has not overcome some of the negative effects of his prostitution scandal, and Democratic Congressman Charles Melancon might be able to make Vitter sweat. It’s also still possible that another senior Republican (such as Secretary of State Jay Dardenne) will challenge Vitter in the party primary. Vitter’s innate advantage is that the Bayou State has become increasingly anti-Obama and, post-Hurricane Katrina, tilted to the GOP. Many African-Americans who were forced to leave New Orleans and resettle in other states may never return. In 2008, Barack Obama received a mere 14% of the white vote in Louisiana–a figure that underlines the challenge for any statewide Democratic candidate.
Update: February 26, 2009
David Vitter (R-LA): In most other states, we could safely write off Sen. Vitter, a “family values” conservative who was hypocritically caught with his hand in the cookie jar in the messy “D.C. Madam” prostitution scandal in 2007. A regular customer of the world’s oldest profession, Vitter reportedly had a thing for wearing diapers during the performances, earning him the sobriquet of “Diaper David”. (In an added bit of irony, a Vitter commercial from his 2004 Senate race centered on his changing his son’s diaper.) But this is Louisiana, a state for which Illinois is eternally grateful. Vitter may give new meaning to Robert Penn Warren’s famous phrase “the stink of the didie” in All the King’s Men, set in the Bayou State, of course. Yet as the incumbent he enters his 2010 reelection battle with distinct advantages. Louisiana is a conservative Republican state overall, and the well funded ($2 million-on-hand) Vitter is playing to the right-wing of the GOP–for example, being the only Foreign Relations Committee senator to vote against Hillary Clinton’s nomination to be Secretary of State. Also, the other Louisiana senator is a Democrat, Mary Landrieu. It may be difficult to get state voters to put in a second Democrat, although some potent Democrats are taking a close look at the contest, including Shaw Group CEO and former state party chairman Jim Bernhard, U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon (who is hesitant to run), former U.S. Rep. Chris John (hmmm…a “John versus John” race), and Jefferson Parish District Attorney Paul Connick, cousin of crooner Harry Connick, Jr. Equally important will be the answer to this question: Will any notable Republican challenge Vitter in the GOP primary? (The state now has regular party primaries for U.S. Senate instead of the come-one-come-all open primary used for Governor.) Two may be possibilities: Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and the new House wonder that defeated U.S. Rep. “Dollar Bill” Jefferson, Congressman Anh “Joseph” Cao. The former, Secretary Dardenne, must be worried about the puzzling decision by Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) to appear at a fundraiser for Vitter–a decision that could come back to haunt the heretofore squeaky-clean Jindal when he seeks support from family values conservatives in a presidential bid one day. (Jindal is now insisting that his appearance at the Vitter event did not constitute an endorsement; what marvelous hair-splitting can these pols perform!) By the way, Congressman Cao will have a hard time getting reelected from his liberal Democratic district in 2010, but he would be beautifully positioned to take out a second corrupt Louisiana politician, this time, Mr. Vitter. A third Republican, former state Rep. Tony Perkins, who heads the conservative Family Research Council, is also considering a bid against Vitter. Perkins could split the hard core GOP base that Vitter has been trying to nail down, something Secretary Dardenne would likely welcome. The only announced Republican candidate against Vitter is Stormy Daniels, a well known sex worker who offered this rationale for her candidacy: “I might be a slut and a whore…but I’m not a criminal, and I’ve never been a hypocrite.” As we said, it’s Louisiana. And Daniels can fairly make the claim that that she is a one-woman stimulus package. Vitter is lucky because, so far, he has avoided strong opposition, yet given his scandal and hypocrisy, he can never rest easy. His supporters once touted him as a future President, but his chances of winding up in the White House are about the same as a dirty pile of diapers. This contest is unformed as yet, and it’s fair to call it a TOSS-UP.