Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidates: Jack Conway, KY attorney general
Republican candidates: Rand Paul, ophthalmologist
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5th, 2010
This contest is getting closer as Republican nominee Rand Paul, a controversial Tea Party nominee, has been unable to fully harness the conservative nature of the state and the Republican momentum this year. We still rate this one as Leans R since Kentucky is so anti-Obama, but Democrat Jack Conway’s situation is far from hopeless.
Update: May 20, 2010
Just wild, and one of our favorites. Secretary of State Trey Grayson was the establishment GOP choice and was backed strongly by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in Tuesday’s primary. But former presidential candidate Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, a self-described Tea Party candidate, won the Republican Senate nod in an overwhelming landslide. McConnell had helped to ease out GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who would have lost in November. Yet now he is stuck with a party nominee who dislikes him and won’t even commit to reelecting a fellow Kentuckian to his Senate post. Paul has some very un-Republican views on foreign policy and drugs–or at least he once did–and the fall election is going to be as dirty as any in the nation this year. Meanwhile, the Democrats narrowly chose Attorney General Jack Conway over Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo to carry their Senate colors. Conway was considered by Democratic insiders to be the stronger politician, but he’s got his work cut out for him in this 57% McCain state where Obama’s policies are not popular. Our sense is that Paul is the favorite and likely to win the seat, but he’s also fully capable of throwing it away with controversial statements and an undisciplined, divisive campaign. We’ll see. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
Just wild, and one of our favorites. Secretary of State Trey Greyson is the establishment GOP choice and is backed strongly by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But former presidential candidate Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul, has scrambled the usual line of succession. McConnell helped to ease out GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, who would have lost in November. Yet he may be stuck with a party nominee in Paul who dislikes him and won’t even commit to reelecting a fellow Kentuckian to his Senate post. Paul has some very un-Republican views on foreign policy and drugs–or at least he once did–and this May primary is going to be as dirty as any in the nation this year. Get ready. Meanwhile, the Democrats also have an acrimonious primary battle between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. We’ll have to wait to see how vicious things get in each party, and what the final match-up is, before we have any real sense of what will happen in the fall. It’s worth stressing, though, that Kentucky is a conservative, anti-Obama state, and any Democrat will have to be very lucky to win here in 2010.
Update: November 19, 2009
Right now, the Republican nominee would have to be slated as a slight favorite in conservative, anti-Obama Kentucky, if the nominee’s name is Secretary of State Trey Grayson–who has a serious primary battle with well-funded Rand Paul, son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul. This tiny tilt in Grayson’s direction assumes the primary doesn’t damage him too much, if he wins at all. It is too early to assess Paul as a general election candidate, though Kentucky Democrats believe they could defeat him. As for the Democrats, they have two potentially competitive candidates in Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, though Mongiardo shot himself in both feet and several other places in a recent profane recorded conversation where he attacked Gov. Steve Beshear (D). Beshear had endorsed Mongiardo, but the lieutenant governor was angry that Beshear was soaking up the available campaign cash for himself. (“I am close to saying f— it all…I do not need this job…a U.S. Senate seat,” exclaimed Mongiardo.) Despite this embarrassment, Mongiardo still leads Conway in the primary. Many Democrats fondly remember that Mongiardo nearly defeated U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in 2004.
Update: June 25, 2009
Sen. Jim Bunning (R) of Kentucky couldn’t be weaker, and if he persists in seeking a third term, then a reasonably moderate Democratic nominee should take the seat. Should Bunning end up retiring, then Republicans could hold this one with Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who has maneuvered into position as Bunning’s successor (with Bunning’s approval, apparently). The Democratic nominee will either be Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo or Attorney General Jack Conway, who are engaged in a close primary battle.
Update: February 26, 2009
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Bunning has won two squeakers for the U.S. Senate, in 1998 and again in 2004, never having received more than 51% of the vote in this usually Republican state. Despite his age (79 in 2010), he insists he’s going for a third term. As such, one would expect another close race, if Democrats can get a strong candidate. Quite a number of possibilities are mentioned, such as state Attorney General Jack Conway, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and Fifth district U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, who has statewide name recognition from a previous, losing race for Governor. Conway is the most likely of this trio to run. But the most frequently discussed nominee for the moment is Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who as a state senator in 2004 nearly upset Bunning despite President Bush’s massive 60% landslide in the state. Meanwhile, some Kentucky political observers continue to speculate that Bunning will not run again in the end, and increasingly, it appears that some senior leaders of the national and state GOP would prefer that Bunning didn’t. He may be the one Republican who can actually lose the seat–a highly unusual position for an incumbent, but a product of, among other things, an unexplained absence from the Senate in January 2009. (Bunning refused to say where he was or what he was doing while he missed key committee hearings and floor votes.) Should Bunning step aside, the GOP Senate nominee may be Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who appears to be the early frontrunner. It is not impossible that, with enough encouragement, Grayson or another Republican could challenge Bunning in the Republican primary. Other possible Republican nominees include Congressman Ed Whitfield, Congressman Geoff Davis, or state Senate President David Williams. TOSS UP.