Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R
Democratic candidates: Linda Johnston, Baker University assistant dean
Republican candidates: Jerry Moran, congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
The Republican nominee will be the next U.S. senator, succeeding Governor-to-be Sam Brownback (R). GOP voters will decide between two congressmen, moderate-conservative Jerry Moran and conservative Todd Tiahrt. Polls show Moran has a slight edge—but how much does it matter? Either one will win and their prospective Senate voting records would be almost identical. SOLID REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
The Republican nominee will be the next U.S. senator, succeeding Governor-to-be Sam Brownback (R). GOP voters will decide between two congressmen, moderate-conservative Jerry Moran and conservative Todd Tiahrt.
Update: February 26, 2009
Sam Brownback (R-KS): OPEN SEAT. Republicans may get a big break here. Brownback is relinquishing his Senate seat after fourteen years to run for Governor. The Republican nominee, who will be either U.S. Rep. Jerry Moran (R-First CD) or U.S. Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Fourth CD), will have a natural edge in this normally Republican state over any Democrat except popular two-term Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS), but some press reports suggest she will be President Obama’s nominee to be Secretary of Health and Human Services. (This follows the embarrassing withdrawal of Secretary-designate Tom Daschle after tax-cheating charges emerged.) Sebelius was an early and ardent backer of Obama, and interestingly, Sebelius is the daughter of a Governor–not from Kansas but from Ohio, former Governor Jack Gilligan (D-1971-75). If Sebelius is not chosen for the Obama Cabinet and then she decides to run for Senate, the contest will be HIGHLY COMPETITIVE, with an initial edge to Sebelius. But if Sebelius ends up out of the running. Democrats have an essentially empty bench of strong candidates, and the seat will be a REPUBLICAN HOLD.