Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Brad Ellsworth, congressman
Republican candidates: Dan Coats, former Senator from Indiana
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
Former Sen. Dan Coats (R) had the worst roll-out of any Senate candidate this year. His lucrative lobbying career and his residency in Virginia and expressed desire to retire to North Carolina hobbled him, and despite being the choice of senior Republicans in both D.C. and Indiana, the bland Coats received an unimpressive 39% in the recent party primary. But now Coats has the good luck to be the GOP nominee in a Republican year in a conservative state. Democrats are mourning the decision of Sen. Evan Bayh to retire since Bayh would have been a shoo-in. However, Democrats have chosen the strongest possible party candidate in former sheriff and current Congressman Brad Ellsworth. It will be difficult but far from impossible for Ellsworth to pull this out, but he needs a lot of luck—good for him and bad for Coats. LEANS REPUBLICAN PICK-UP.
Update: April 8, 2010
Former Sen. Dan Coats (R) had the worst roll-out of any Senate candidate this year. His lucrative lobbying career and his residency in Virginia and expressed desire to retire to North Carolina have hobbled him. We don’t completely rule out an upset by one of his challengers in the GOP primary. However, the usual establishment suspects are falling in line behind Coats, and he will have the good luck to be the GOP nominee in a Republican year in a conservative state. Democrats are mourning the decision of Sen. Evan Bayh to retire since Bayh would have been a shoo-in. Democrats have chosen the strongest possible party candidate in Congressman Brad Ellsworth. It will be difficult but far from impossible for Ellsworth to pull this out.
Update: January 21, 2010
Among the senators who could be endangered by a new wave of Republican entries are Evan Bayh (Indiana), Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Patty Murray (Washington), and Russ Feingold (Wisconsin).
An early example is Indiana, where Republican Congressman Mike Pence is reportedly weighing a challenge to Evan Bayh. The Hoosier State gave Obama its electoral votes in 2008 by a razor-thin margin. If Democrats could lose a Senate seat in Massachusetts, which Obama carried with 62 percent, it is theoretically possible that Indiana could be in play come November. The same is true for the other states. In politics you cannot beat somebody with nobody, but as Scott Brown proved, a nobody can become a somebody rather quickly in the right environment.
Update: February 19, 2009
Evan Bayh (D-IN): Indiana is never easy for a Democrat, but Bayh isn’t any old Democrat. His long record of electoral success in the Hoosier State gives him a big leg up. Barack Obama’s victory here in 2008 suggests that the state isn’t as Republican as many have thought. A few names are being lightly discussed, but the GOP apparently has no big names willing to take Bayh on. DEMOCRATIC HOLD.