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Illinois Senate 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidates: Alexi Giannoulias, treasurer of Illinois

Republican candidates: Mark Kirk, congressman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 7, 2010

During a recent visit to Illinois, it was impossible to avoid hearing much wailing and gnashing of Democratic teeth over the choice of their Senate nominee, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. In Barack Obama’s home state, Giannoulias—closely tied to a failing, corrupt bank in a year when voters are deeply angry at banks—has no better than an even shot at the seat. If Republicans post any national surge on November 2, Giannoulias may achieve the highly unlikely by losing to Republican Congressman Mark Kirk (R), who has had his own problems with fabricating portions of his resume. Democrats are still mourning the decision by state Attorney General Lisa Madigan not to seek the Senate seat. She would have been a substantial favorite.

Update: July 8, 2010

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk haven’t exactly distinguished themselves in 2010. It has been a long time since there was a high-level competition between two politicians with this many self-inflicted wounds. The two runners are limping so badly that the winner will be the one who crawls first across the finish line. The albatross for Giannoulias, the state treasurer, is his family’s bank which was seized by federal regulators in April after it collapsed. A new ad from the Kirk camp accuses Giannoulias and his family of making overly risky loans, including loans to convicted mobsters. Meanwhile, Congressman Kirk has a bad case of resume enhancement, having invented a military award he didn’t get and teaching experience he never gained. He has also taken heat for a Hillary Clinton-type moment as he recounted being under enemy fire in Kandahar, contrary to official records. As with Democratic Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut, who falsely claimed to have served in Vietnam, Kirk’s resume enhancement has been pointless. Kirk has a fine military record and he didn’t need to make the other exaggerations. The embellishments appear to be force of habit, and this reminds us of the old joke about lawyers and politicians: How can you tell when they’re lying? Their lips are moving. Illinois is used to shady candidacies, of course, but these two have energized the Green Party candidate, LeAlan Jones, who with little apparent effort is securing 14 percent of the vote in a recent trial heat. If Illinois had Nevada’s none-of-the-above ballot line, it is entirely possible that the parties would have to find new nominees for a special election after November. But either Kirk or Giannoulias is going to win, and there is only one clear path to victory—make the other candidate look so bad that the lesser of evils goes to the Senate. Sure enough, the candidates are already fiercely attacking one another, and neither is going to bother making much of a positive case for himself. If President Obama is able to exert influence anywhere in this year of his discontent, it ought to be in Illinois for the seat he once held. That may help Giannoulias as long as the nominee can put himself in a position to win. Kirk’s best shot is a sizeable Republican wave that can reconnect Illinois to its roots as the Land of [Republican] Lincoln–though we’re quite sure Kirk and Giannoulias will never find themselves with Lincoln on Mount Rushmore.

Update: June 17, 2010

If Illinois had a “none of the above” ballot line like Nevada, we’d bet on None. Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D) are running a race to see which one can become less popular. Even a Green Party candidate is registering in double digits. Both parties secretly wish they could start over, but they’re stuck. One of them has to win.

Update: May 20, 2010

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias has had a bad spring, and Republican Mark Kirk couldn’t be happier. Illinois is so Democratic and the Obama White House is so determined to keep the president’s former seat in Blue hands that you simply can’t rule Giannoulias out despite all the corruption charges swirling around his family’s bank. If the election were held today, the moderate-conservative Kirk would win, but by no means has Kirk put this away. If Democrats save any endangered seat, it could be this one. TOSS UP

Update: April 8, 2010

Neither Democrat Alexi Giannoulias nor Republican Mark Kirk is having a great spring. Illinois is so Democratic and the Obama White House is so determined to keep the president’s former seat in Blue hands that you simply can’t rule Giannoulias out despite all the corruption charges swirling around his family’s bank. Kirk also can’t decide if he’s running as a moderate or a conservative. If the election were held today, Kirk would win. But this one will be worth watching all the way.

Update: November 19, 2009

The GOP appears to have an even chance in Illinois with moderate Congressman Mark Kirk (R). The Democratic frontrunner is state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, though he has real competition from Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson and possibly former Chicago inspector general David Hoffman. This is President Obama’s former Senate seat, and so as in Delaware, we can expect the White House–full of Chicago pols–to do everything within its power to keep the seat Democratic.

Update: February 19, 2009

Roland Burris (D-IL): APPOINTED SENATOR. Is there anyone out there who doesn’t know the saga of Roland Burris? Sleazy, impeached, cuckoo Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D-IL), accused of trying to sell President Obama’s vacated U.S. Senate seat, tried to recoup by choosing an African-American. Burris was a 71-year old, washed-up politician in the Land of Lincoln, having lost three gubernatorial campaigns after service in lower-level elective positions such as state Attorney General. The Democratic Senate leadership at first pledged absolutely that Blagojevich would not be rewarded and Burris would not be seated. Some critics immediately made race an issue, correctly pointing out that, without Burris (and Obama), the U.S. Senate would have not a single African-American member. Afraid of alienating blacks, fearful also of losing a possible special election to fill the post, and faced with expert opinion that they had no legal right to deny Burris his due, Democrats executed an embarrassing about-face. Before Obama was sworn in as President, Burris got the Senate slot. Respect is something else, of course. It was obvious that Burris knew this was his only way back into office. While his record has been described as honest–by the generous Illinois yardstick–Burris is also widely seen as thoroughly mediocre. He undeniably has a massive ego, having already built his own mausoleum in tribute to himself, carving every ‘trail-blazing’ accomplishment into rock. And now, Burris’ honesty is being called into question. In testimony given to the Illinois state House of Representatives in early January, Burris denied that he had had conversations about the Senate seat with anyone close to Blagojevich before Christmas. But it turns out he spoke to the Governor’s brother and chief of staff well before that time. It will be surprising if Democrats choose to nominate Burris for a full term in 2010, assuming he runs. As always, it will depend on the competition. Anti-Burris Democrats are recruiting State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), a 32-year old former professional basketball player in Greece who is a FOO (Friend of Obama). Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D) may challenge Burris, too. (Madigan also has her eye on the Governorship.) Should Burris somehow be nominated, a moderate GOP Senate candidate such as Congressman Mark Kirk would have a shot. Another Republican who is being touted as a possibility is Congressmen Peter Roskam, though he appears to be willing to defer to Kirk. We’ll need to see the entire field of candidates before a reasonable judgment can be made. TOSS UP.