Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Kendrick Meek, congressman
Republican candidates: Marco Rubio, former FL speaker of the house
Independent candidates: Charlie Crist, former governor of FL
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 14, 2010
For some time now, we have had Republican Marco Rubio the favorite over Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio’s lead is now so large, and the chances of Crist and Meek joining forces to unite behind one candidacy are now so small, that we are changing Florida Senate from Leans R to Likely R.
Update: September 16, 2010
Republican Marco Rubio has opened up a small lead in this crazy-quilt three-way race with Governor Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). Meek will likely finish third in the end, so the real question is whether Democrats can find a way to collapse his vote in late October—once it is clear he is doing poorly—and transfer most of those votes to Crist so he can win. With no competitive African-American Democrat running elsewhere in the nation, national Democrats may be forced to stick with Meek, even though Crist would almost certainly sit with the Democratic caucus in the Senate. The Republicans don’t want Crist and they would face a rebellion among their base if they took him back. And yes, in the Senate, you have to pick a party or you may not get committee assignments or have any influence beyond floor votes. Independent Sen. Wayne Morse of Oregon found that out the hard way back in 1953, after he left the GOP but before he joined the Democrats. This Senate contest could be very late-breaking.
Update: July 8, 2010
If the election were held today, Gov. Charlie Crist would take the Senate seat. If Kendrick Meek receives the Democratic nomination, it is doubtful he could even be competitive. Democrats sense this, and they might shift en masse to Crist to prevent a victory by conservative Tea Party favorite Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee who chased Crist, facing near-certain defeat, out of the GOP. Crist, a moderate but also something of a political chameleon, is doing everything possible to facilitate Democratic defections by taking moderate to liberal positions on controversies that are arising, from abortion to education to the environment. But strategic voting is never easy to orchestrate. The national Democrats can’t afford to cut loose the only African-American in the nation with a real chance to keep the Senate racially integrated. And most blacks will almost certainly stick with Meek in November. Of course, that assumes Meek is the nominee. Out of nowhere, as self-funders often do, comes controversial billionaire Jeff Greene, a friend of madam Heidi Fleiss and enemy of Opie-adorable Ron Howard, which may tell us something. Greene is already tied with Meek in the primary polls. If Greene wins, will national party leaders feel free to point their partisans in Crist’s direction? Or will they be inclined to stick with a candidate whose unlimited resources might guarantee a competitive contest? It is not at all clear. Meanwhile, Rubio has to hope that there is a strong GOP wave in the fall and that the official Democratic nominee draws perhaps 25 to 30 percent of the vote. Former Gov. Jeb Bush–who despises Crist and has sponsored Rubio–also has a big stake in a Rubio victory. Bush remains quite popular in Florida. The dynamics of a three-way race are always complicated and fluid, and this one is proof positive. We’ll be watching this shoot-out intently throughout the autumn. Expect the unexpected.
Update: June 17, 2010
Gov. Charlie Crist is increasingly looking like the cat that ate the canary. The Democrats have mainly come to realize that their nominee, whether Rep. Kendrick Meek or controversial self-funder Jeff Greene, will finish a poor third in November. Crist has done everything but jump in President Obama’s lap during Obama’s recent trips to the Gulf, as well as take issue stands on abortion and other topics very pleasing to Democrats. Is Independent Crist becoming the de facto Democratic candidate? If he can consolidate his backers and Democrats, Republican Marco Rubio is unlikely to win. We’ll see.
Update: May 20, 2010
No doubt about it, here’s one of the headline contests for November. In a bold and brilliant (or foolish) move—depending on who is analyzing this—Gov. Charlie Crist left the Republican Party to run for Senate as an Independent. Despite his various rationalizations, it was all about personal survival. Crist had already made the worst political move of the year by giving up a secure second term in the statehouse for the Senate bid. Conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio was on track to defeat the moderate Crist overwhelmingly for the GOP nomination, capitalizing on party anger at Crist for allegedly “cozying up” to President Obama. Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek hopes he’ll benefit in running against “two Republicans” in a contest that requires only a third of the vote to win, but so far the polls show Meek running a poor third. Crist and Rubio each lead in some polls, but both are stuck in the 30s. This is a volatile, unpredictable war. Can Crist get enough money and organization to be fully competitive? Can Rubio find a way to attract enough centrists to add to his solid GOP base? If a Republican wave is reasonably high by November, Rubio should be able to win. For now, TOSS UP
Update: April 8, 2010
Worst political move of the year goes to Gov. Charlie Crist, who gave up a secure second term in the statehouse for a Senate bid. Conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio is on track to defeat him for the GOP nomination. Democratic Cong. Kendrick Meek will do better against Rubio than Crist, but isn’t likely to win in either case.
Update: November 19, 2009
First, the GOP has a big job on its hands just holding its seven open seats in FL, KS, KY, MO, NH, OH, and TX. Kansas is a near-certainty for Republicans, regardless of which U.S. House member is nominated in the party primary; the current sense in GOP circles is that Congressman Jerry Moran is the likely nominee over Congressman Todd Tiahrt. Florida looks likely for the GOP, though Gov. Charlie Crist is no longer the unassailable frontrunner. Conservatives much prefer former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, who is backed by allies of former Gov. Jeb Bush (and eventually, Bush himself). Either Crist or Rubio would be the November favorite over Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek.
Update: June 25, 2009
In Florida, national Republicans are doing everything possible to help Gov. Charlie Crist get the nomination for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s (R) seat. However, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio is a darling of Florida conservatives (including Crist’s predecessor, Gov. Jeb Bush, whose son has now endorsed Rubio) and Rubio is planning a no-holds-barred assault on the moderate Crist. Fortunately for the GOP, the Democrats appear set to nominate either Congressman Kendrick Meek or Congresswoman Corrine Brown, either of whom will have a difficult time winning a general election. If the Democrats find a more potent nominee, and Rubio should upset Crist, then the rating on this contest could change.
Update: February 26, 2009
Mel Martinez (R-FL): OPEN SEAT. Never very popular, Martinez stunned his state by deciding to step down after just one term, creating a rare open seat opportunity in this mega-state. The pent-up ambitions of dozens of politicians are on display. Nonetheless, one politician had the ability to shut down the contest on the GOP side, and also become the instant November favorite: former Gov. Jeb Bush. The Sunshine State is one of the few where it is still possible for a Bush to be elected to a top spot because Jeb Bush carved out his own legacy in eight years as Governor (1999-2007), and voters understand the difference between Jeb and George. But after sending signals that he might run, Jeb Bush said no in early January. Republicans would love to get popular Gov. Charlie Crist to forgo a second term as chief executive and run for the Senate instead. Like Bush would have, Crist would very likely win the seat. On the other hand, the open Senate seat is good news for Crist in another way: Most ambitious Democrats are going to make a beeline for an open Senate seat rather than challenging an incumbent Governor. Crist has sent contradictory signals about his intentions, and the GOP field will be essentially frozen until he decides whether he’d rather continue being Governor or prefers the Senate seat. At one time, the presumed Democratic frontrunner was state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, but she has now removed her name from consideration and plans to run again for her post. In her stead, a cluster of U.S. House members is now hungrily eyeing the Senate seat, including Kathy Castor, Kendrick Meek, and Ron Klein. State Sen. Dan Gelber, an early Obama supporter, is also in the hunt, as is Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio. For the Republicans, if Crist joins Bush in opting out of the Senate contest, the GOP will have exhausted the list of near-sure winners. The GOP has to find a good candidate and will have just a 50-50 shot at holding the seat. It isn’t immediately obvious which second-tier Republicans will launch a candidacy but a couple of GOP congressmen are making noises, including wealthy Vern Buchanan and Connie Mack (whose father served in the Senate–another dynasty watch that has yielded Mack an early poll lead in the Republican primary). Former New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Bob Smith is also considering the race; he’s lived in the Sunshine State since his defeat for re-nomination by now-former U.S. Sen. John Sununu (R) in 2002. Some current and former state legislative leaders may also jump in. Former Florida House Speakers Marco Rubio and Allan Bense are ones to watch, especially if either one turns out to be the choice of Jeb Bush and many of Bush’s supporters. A TV talk show host, former Congressman Joe Scarborough (R), has been promoted by his MSNBC colleagues for the seat, but much like Chris Matthews’ feint in the Pennsylvania Senate contest, this will end up being the staple of cable TV–hot air. If Crist runs, this is LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD. Otherwise, it’s a TOSS-UP.