Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D
Democratic candidates: Chris Coons, New Castle County Executive
Republican candidates: Christine O’Donnell, marketing consultant
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: September 16, 2010
Within minutes of insurgent Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell’s 53.1% to 46.9% victory on Tuesday night, we changed the rating of this November contest from Leans Republican to Likely Democratic. Had Congressman Mike Castle (R) defeated O’Donnell to become the GOP nominee, Castle would have been the fall favorite to add a Senate seat to the GOP column. Instead, previously little-known Democrat Chris Coons is likely to hold the seat of retiring appointed Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) for the Democrats. Both Sarah Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) endorsed O’Donnell, knowing full well that she would likely lose the seat in heavily Democratic Delaware. They made no friends among the state and D.C. GOP leadership, which rallied strongly on behalf of Castle and, after the votes were counted, immediately made it clear they would not be doing much to help O’Donnell. The leadership reasoned that they would get Castle’s Senate vote about 70% of the time, a good bit better than the 0% for Coons. Yet for very conservative Republicans, it is better to lose a seat than to accept any deviation from the ideological norm. And up is down, and war is peace, as anyone who has read George Orwell knows. This switch considerably lowers the likelihood of Republicans’ gaining control of the Senate, even though it is still theoretically possible if they run the table on the remaining competitive contests. As for the Crystal Ball, O’Donnell’s primary triumph lowers our projected national GOP gain from +8-9 to +7-8. In our September 2nd analysis, we promised to do exactly this if O’Donnell beat Castle.
Update: May 20, 2010
It will be an embarrassment to the White House and Vice President Joe Biden if Biden’s old seat goes Republican, but even in deep-Blue Delaware, that seems probable. Congressman Mike Castle (R) is leading by a wide margin in the polls and ought to defeat little-known local official Chris Coons (D). LEANS REPUBLICAN PICK-UP
Update: April 8, 2010
It will be an embarrassment to the White House and Vice President Joe Biden if Biden’s old seat goes Republican, but even in deep-Blue Delaware, that seems probable. Congressman Mike Castle (R) ought to defeat little-known local official Chris Coons (D).
Update: November 19, 2009
Obviously, Republicans hope to make up for any losses in GOP-held seats by defeating incumbent Democrats or taking open Democratic seats in Delaware, Illinois, and Massachusetts. Congressman Mike Castle (R-DE) has caused GOP hopes to soar with his decision to run the Senate race against state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), Vice President Biden’s son. The moderate Castle leads the early polls, though not by much. Delaware has become a solidly Democratic state, and the Biden family (plus the Obama White House) will pull out all the stops to support the Biden dynasty.
Update: October 8, 2009
Republicans got just the break they were hoping for in the Delaware Senate race. Republican Rep. Mike Castle will run, challenging the Vice President’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D). Biden would have defeated any other Republican, but Castle is leading Biden in early polls. The Vice President has great sway, but the dynasty issue helps Castle. With the placeholder senator, Biden disciple Ted Kaufman, serving until 2010, a Castle win would cause the seat to switch party columns, so expect massive spending on both sides for this small-state seat. It will be a classic test of the 2010 mood. If the year clearly tilts Republican, Castle will win. If 2010 turns out to be a standoff with only modest Republican gains, it’s Biden in this solid Blue state. The early betting line from the Crystal Ball is slightly in favor of Castle, but this is a race that could wobble over the next year. Vice President Biden isn’t about to see his son denied his old seat, and while he cannot ride Amtrak anymore, the V-POTUS may be traveling to the First State practically daily again.
Update: June 25, 2009
The open seat in Delaware, which Vice President Joe Biden had hoped to bestow in royal fashion upon his son, state Attorney General Beau Biden, is proving to be potentially troublesome as many Delawareans rebel against the politics of dynasty. However, the effort to defeat Beau Biden will very likely fail unless the Republican nominee is Congressman Michael Castle. Even Castle isn’t a lead-pipe cinch in this strongly Democratic state, despite early polls showing him well ahead. While Castle could run for reelection to his House seat, it now seems likely that Castle will, in fact, run for the Senate. The next question will be whether Biden decides to wait his turn until the 70-year-old Castle retires. (The 2010 Delaware election is only for four years, the remainder of Joe Biden’s Senate term, and it is possible that a Senator Castle could hang up his spurs at age 75 in 2014.)
Update: February 19, 2009
Ted Kaufman (D-DE): APPOINTED SENATOR–OPEN SEAT Such is the strength of dynasty in American politics that this Senate spot is now known as “The Biden Seat”. It belonged–the possessive verb is not too presumptuous–to Vice President Joseph Biden from 1973 (he was 29 when elected) until he resigned in early 2009. Like some of his Veep predecessors, Biden was too greedy to give up his Senate seat in order to seek the VP spot, so he was reelected to the Senate on the same night he won residence in the Naval Observatory. But what was he to do with the lesser prize? Biden wanted son Beau, the state’s attorney general, to succeed him, but Beau had a tour of Reserves duty in the Middle East to fulfill. The brilliant if rancid solution was the old seat-warmer gambit: Put a completely loyal, utterly reliable placeholder in the Senate to keep the seat warm until young Beau found it convenient to run. The seat-warmer steps aside and doesn’t run for election the next time around. Joe Biden helped the unpopular outgoing Democratic Governor, Ruth Ann Minner, to make the appointment decision. She ignored the best qualified candidate, Lt. Gov. John Carney, favored by the party activists, and installed the Biden pick, 69-year-old Ted Kaufman, whose ticket to the seat was his prior service as Biden’s Senate chief of staff. The universal reaction in Delaware was “Ted Who?”, and some party people privately fumed at the arrogance of it all. But of course heavily Blue Delaware will probably go right along with the plan and elect a Democrat in 2010, very likely the aforementioned Beau Biden. It’s the right thing to do for the American House of Lords. It is possible that Carney or someone else will challenge Biden in a Democratic primary. For the GOP to have any chance at all in November, former Governor and longtime U.S. Rep. Michael Castle (R-DE) would have to give up his safe House berth. He’s 71 years old. Not bloody likely. DEMOCRATIC HOLD.