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Colorado Senate 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidates: Michael Bennet, incumbent senator

Republican candidates: Ken Buck, District Attorney of Weld County

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: September 16, 2010

 After a visit last week, it’s more obvious than ever that the Republicans have completely blown their good opportunity to win the state governorship. Their tarnished nominee, Dan Maes, has been abandoned by just about everyone in the party after revelations about his past, and former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R) is splitting what remains of the GOP vote by running as an independent. As we have said for some time, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) is the unofficial Governor-elect. But what we picked up was interesting. Like many competitive Purple states, Colorado wants to send the Democrats a message. Since they cannot do it for Governor, they appear more likely to pay the postage in the Senate race, by supporting Republican nominee Ken Buck, a Tea Party candidate, against appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Several sharp political observers in the Centennial State pointed this out to us. An odd psychology may be at work. It’s still a very close race, though.

Update: May 20, 2010

Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has a lot to prove in a very short time. He’s become a White House favorite, but that hasn’t stopped an energetic challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, who defeated him at the state party convention (not surprising, given the liberal cast of such a conclave). If he survives the primary, and he’s currently leading Romanoff, he’ll face a tough GOP opponent in the fall, either former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Buck. TOSS UP

Update: April 8, 2010

Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has a lot to prove in a very short time. He’s become a White House favorite, but that hasn’t stopped an energetic challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff. If he survives the primary, he’ll face a tough GOP opponent in the fall, presumably former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton.

Update: November 19, 2009

Rounding out the list of potential Democratic vulnerabilities are two appointive senators, Michael Bennet of Colorado and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York. Bennet was the surprise choice by Gov. Bill Ritter (D) to replace Obama Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D), and while bright and wealthy, he was and is unknown to many Coloradans. Bennet is being opposed in the Democratic primary by former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and the primary alone could be a tight one. Waiting for the winner in November will be former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton, who will be staunchly backed by national Republicans. Colorado was a 2008 Blue state that, like Virginia just did in its gubernatorial election, could turn Red again in ‘10.

Update: June 25, 2009

Michael Bennet has hit the ground running hard in Colorado, and no heavy hitter will oppose him for the Democratic nomination. The GOP has come up with two little-known candidates who will battle it out in a primary. One of them might catch on, but the contest has become an uphill struggle for the Republicans.

Update: February 19, 2009

Michael Bennet (D-CO): APPOINTED SENATOR. Gov. Bill Ritter (D-CO) shocked his state by appointing a virtual political unknown, Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet, to succeed Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (D-CO). Now the youngest U.S. Senator at 44, Bennet has never been elected to any office and doesn’t have a long association with Colorado. Outside of Denver, the choice was met with puzzled expressions and considerable disappointment, especially by Hispanics. One group seemed pleased: Republicans. They had feared a politically potent choice like Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. On the other hand, at least Bennet isn’t another dynasty candidate; Congressman John Salazar (D-CO) was considered at one point to fill his brother’s Senate seat. Apparently, the wealthy and well connected Bennet convinced Gov. Ritter that he has the contacts and ability to raise large amounts of money for the 2010 Senate contest for a full six-year term, and the new senator has an excellent reputation in the field of primary and secondary education. But Bennet has a tough slog before he can be considered the frontrunner in 2010. It is not certain that he will be unopposed by a major figure in the party for the Democratic nomination; for instance, Hickenlooper, who was apparently the runner-up on Ritter’s list for the seat, could challenge the underling who upstaged him, and have a decent chance of winning. So far Hickenlooper says he is not interested, but another Democratic star, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, may be. As mentioned, Republicans see an unexpected opportunity here. They would not have been able to defeat Ken Salazar for reelection, and a popular, well known appointee would also have started the race with a notable advantage. But rural and exurban Colorado will not necessarily see Bennet as a champion of their interests. Despite the Democratic trend in Colorado in both 2006 and 2008, Republicans retain a firm base in the state, and if they nominate an acceptable moderate-conservative–rather than some of their recent wacky officeholders (such as former Congressman Tom Tancredo)–the GOP might prove competitive. Unfortunately for the GOP, their two arguably strongest competitors–state Attorney General John Suthers and former U.S. Rep. Scott McInnis–have declined to challenge Bennet. For now, this contest rates the cautious label of TOSS-UP.