Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Blanche Lincoln, incumbent senator
Republican candidates: John Boozman, Congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
Blanche Lincoln gives every sign of being Dead Woman Walking. She barely edged liberal union-backed challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the Tuesday’s primary and has been forced into a June 8th runoff. Whether Lincoln or Halter, the Democratic nominee will likely lose to the GOP Congressman John Boozman, who won an absolute majority against several opponents on Tuesday. He’ll sit back and watch the Democratic bloodletting in an anti-Obama state that gave 59% to John McCain in 2008. LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.
Update: April 8, 2010
Blanche Lincoln gives every sign of being Dead Woman Walking. If she defeats liberal challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in the May primary, Lincoln will likely lose to the GOP nominee, probably Congressman John Boozman or possibly state Sen. Gil Baker. Frankly, it wouldn’t be a shock if Halter upset her in the primary. Democrats couldn’t do worse in November with Halter as their nominee, and they just might do better.
Update: November 19, 2009
In Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) cannot feel secure when early polls show her weak in a state John McCain carried in a massive landslide. Several Razorback Republican candidates are running and state Sen. Gilbert Baker may be the early favorite. National Republicans smell blood in the water here. Lincoln’s vote on health care reform is sure to make her many enemies on either the left or the right.
Update: February 19, 2009
Blanche Lincoln (D-AR): Republicans are making noises about mounting a serious challenge to Lincoln, especially given John McCain’s solid win in Arkansas on an otherwise awful night for the GOP. They hope to recruit former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), but he’s been bitten by the presidential bug for 2012 (again) and is highly unlikely to take his eye off that ball, or leave the lucrative media and lecturing world. The only other immediately credible GOP nominee would be U.S. Rep. John Boozman, the last Republican in the Arkansas delegation to Congress. He’ll have to be convinced to give up a safe House berth for a very chancy Senate race. Lincoln starts out in a commanding position for her third term. DEMOCRATIC HOLD.