Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R
Democratic candidates: Rodney Glassman, former Vice Mayor of Tucson
Republican candidates: John McCain, incumbent senator
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
Former maverick John McCain is still holding up surprisingly well given the grassroots GOP antagonism that would give life to just about any respectable conservative challenger. McCain has been aggressive toward his opponent, reversing or refining some positions (such as on immigration) in a conservative direction and going on the attack frequently. Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth isn’t necessarily well suited to taking on McCain, especially because of his loss of his own House seat back in 2006. McCain has called in debts owed by Sarah Palin and others. Still, one of the nation’s best known senators cannot rest easy and must work this hard all the way to the primary on August 24. If McCain wins the primary, he’ll win in November. If Hayworth pulls off an upset, we’ll reassess. LEANS McCAIN AND REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: April 8, 2010
John McCain is holding up surprisingly well given the grassroots GOP antagonism that would give life to just about any respectable conservative challenger. Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth isn’t well suited to the task, especially because of his loss of his own House seat back in 2006. McCain has called in debts owed by Sarah Palin and others. Still, one of the nation’s best known senators cannot rest easy and must work this hard all the way to the primary on August 24. If McCain wins the primary, he’ll win in November. If Hayworth pulls off an upset, this might possibly turn into a contest worth watching, even though likely Democratic standard-bearer Rodney Glassman, the vice mayor of Tucson, is not a first-rank candidate.
Update: February 26, 2009
John McCain (R-AZ): The only Democrat who could have defeated John McCain in 2010 for reelection to his Senate seat was snatched away by President Obama for his Cabinet: Gov. Janet Napolitano, now Secretary of Homeland Security. Much like Barry Goldwater, who was reelected to the Senate in 1968 after he lost his 1964 presidential bid, McCain will very likely secure his fifth Senate term. McCain actually won Arizona in 2008 by a much wider margin (53.6%) than Goldwater did in 1964 (50.5%).REPUBLICAN HOLD.