Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Scott McAdams
Republican candidates: Joe Miller
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5th, 2010
A couple of very recent polls have shown Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R/I) making a race out of it as a write-in, following her narrow GOP primary defeat by Tea Party candidate Joe Miller. We’re a bit dubious, since a write-in takes some effort, and a candidate’s backing in pre-election surveys is unlikely to be matched by real votes in the election. Nonetheless, it is now a contest with an indeterminate winner, though we suspect Miller will win in the end. Three things are quite likely. First, Democrat Scott McAdams is going to finish third. Second, the more of his votes that defect to Murkowski, who is considerably more moderate than Miller, the more likely the incumbent is to win. And third, since either Miller or Murkowski will sit in the GOP Senate caucus, the election result doesn’t affect control of the Senate. Therefore, this contest is still Likely R, though our readers can argue about which R.
Update: June 17, 2010
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is a heavy favorite, but the Tea Party is taking her on with a candidate named Joe Miller. And Sarah Palin, who defeated Murkowski’s father for governor in the 2006 GOP primary, favors the Tea Party candidate. Oh, how delicious!
Update: February 26, 2009
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): Here is yet another ‘legacy’ in the Senate, and a more outrageous one than usual. Murkowski’s Senate career began when her father, Sen. Frank Murkowski (R), ran for Governor of Alaska in 2002, and won. Sweetening the deal for him, Governor Frank got to appoint his own successor. He made a great pretense of searching the state high and low for the best qualified person, and lo and behold, he found her in his own household, daughter Lisa. The blatant nepotism did not sit well with Alaska voters, but in 2004, when Lisa had to run on her own, she was incredibly lucky. George W. Bush swept Alaska with 61%. Lisa defeated former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) by a mere 3% (49% to 46%). The Alaskan electorate decided to take out its anger on Governor Frank instead, and he lost in a landslide for reelection in the Republican primary, actually finishing a miserable third place with 19%. The winner of the primary and general was someone you might have heard of, Sarah Palin. Now, fresh off her trailblazing if unsuccessful campaign for vice president, Gov. Palin has to decide if she wants to run for a second term as Governor or to challenge Lisa Murkowski in a primary. Palin is a cinch for Governor again (and we suspect she’ll do that), while the well funded Murkowski would put up a stiff fight. Polls on the potential match-up have been contradictory. (By the way, Palin has a third choice. She could retire from the Governorship and run flat-out for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.) Whatever Palin decides to do, the Senate seat will stay Republican in November. Democrats barely defeated Sen. Ted Stevens (R) in 2008–and he was convicted on seven counts of fraud the week before the election. Senator Mark Begich is all the Democrats are going to get for the time being. REPUBLICAN HOLD.