Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Lee Fisher, lieutenant governor of OH
Republican candidates: Rob Portman, former congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: May 20, 2010
This swing state usually reflects the national trend. It’s why we’ve long suspected the Buckeye State will go Republican this year for Senate, even though the tied polls do not currently reflect this. Former Congressman Rob Portman, the mild-mannered director of President Bush’s Office of Management and Budget, is trying to succeed fellow Republican Sen. George Voinovich. The Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by a solid but not overwhelming margin Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Portman will probably have a long-term money advantage. We’re keeping it a toss-up for now, though it will be a mild surprise if it doesn’t tilt GOP eventually. TOSS UP.
Update: April 8, 2010
This swing state usually reflects the national trend. It’s why we’ve suspected the Buckeye State will go Republican this year for Senate. Former Congressman Rob Portman, the mild-mannered director of President Bush’s Office of Management and Budget, is trying to succeed fellow Republican Sen. George Voinovich. However, this contest is not as clear-cut as it might be. The Democrats expect Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher to be their nominee, although Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is running an energetic race. We’re keeping it a toss-up for now, though it will be a mild surprise if it doesn’t tilt GOP eventually.
Update: November 19, 2009
In two other states where a Republican senator is retiring, New Hampshire and Ohio, the likely GOP nominees (ex-Congressman Rob Portman and ex-state attorney general Kelly Ayotte) are somewhere between slight favorite and even-money bet, depending on whose polls and analysis you believe. Portman will likely face Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D), while Ayotte’s opponent will be Congressman Paul Hodes (D). Democrats are confident they can elect Fisher and Hodes, but the Buckeye and Granite States are sensitive barometers of the national drift, which could be in the GOP’s direction in 2010.
Update: June 25, 2009
Popular GOP Sen. George Voinovich is retiring. Republicans have a respectable candidate in former Congressman Rob Portman, but so far both possible Democratic nominees, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, lead Portman outside the margin of error in most polls. Republican chances depend in part on the Fisher-Brunner primary turning vicious.
Update: February 26, 2009
George Voinovich (R-OH): OPEN SEAT. Ohio is another state that has shifted ground substantially, leaving a once-invulnerable incumbent to cash in his chips. George Voinovich announced in early January that he would not seek a third term. He has been in office almost continuously since 1966, and has served as mayor of Cleveland, lieutenant governor, governor, and since 1999, as U.S. senator. He won both Senate races by handsome margins, and has long been the state’s most popular Republican. But Democrats have surged in Ohio, winning the governorship with Ted Strickland by a wide margin in 2006, ousting the state’s other GOP senator (Mike DeWine) in the same year and substituting Sherrod Brown, and then carrying the Buckeye State for Barack Obama in 2008. Voinovich will be 74 in 2010, and the prospect of a tough contest for reelection must have weighed in his decision. Young Democratic lions such as Congressman Tim Ryan of the Youngstown area started to pace early, and with Voinovich’s retirement announcement, others began to float their own names, including state Attorney General Richard Cordray, Congressman Zack Space, Congresswoman Betty Sutton, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Gov. Strickland has now weighed in to support Lt. Gov. Fisher, and this may (or may not) help to clear out some of the Democratic field. Secretary of State Brunner made it clear she is running in any event, and the Fisher-Brunner match-up will be intense. The front-running Republican to replace Voinovich appears to be former Congressman and ex-Office of Management and Budget Director Rob Portman, but other candidates may also jump in: former U.S. Sen. DeWine, state Auditor Mary Taylor, and former Congressman John Kasich. The key question in Ohio as in so many other states is: How will President Obama–and the economy–perform, and will voters be patient or demand quick results in a devastated economy? TOSS UP.