Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidate: Zack Space, Incumbent
Republican candidate: Bob Gibbs, State Senator
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 14, 2010
Zack Space is feeling the heat from both sides. Labor unions are encouraging voters to “Skip a Space” on the ballot and not vote for him as punishment for his vote against health care reform, while the GOP seeks to tie him to Pelosi for his stimulus vote. The district is clearly Republican, if not overwhelmingly so, and Space is only in his second term. Republican nominee Bob Gibbs has a good shot here if he can capitalize on the unrest from voters on both sides. This race is a Toss-up.
Background:
Second-term Democratic Rep. Zack Space has shown himself a Democrat who is able to maintain a moderate orbit within his traditionally conservative district, and this trait will be useful in facing the Republican meteor shower of criticism being directed at Democrats across the country, including Space.
The Ohio 18th Congressional District is 96 percent white and has gone Republican in the last three presidential elections, with John McCain garnering 53 percent of the vote in 2008. Democrat Zack Space has found success in this district by taking conservative positions on gun ownership and taxes, by working to reduce the effects of globalization on jobs in his district, and by joining the Blue-Dog Coalition. These positions have worked in Space’s favor, as his electoral trajectory has taken him from virtual unknown to a congressman who won 60 percent of the vote in his reelection race against Republican Fred Dailey in 2008.
However, with healthcare legislation and government spending major issues nationwide, a constellation of Republicans are lining up to challenge Space in 2010, charging that Space isn’t conservative enough and that he is too beholden to congressional Democrats, with whom he votes 92.6 percent of the time. Among the GOP challengers are 2008 Republican nominee Fred Dailey, state Sen. Bob Gibbs, Rent-A-Center manger Beau Bromberg, and 2008 primary candidate Jeanette Moll. Among them, no clear frontrunner has emerged, although Bob Gibbs has raised almost $113,000, while Moll and Dailey have both raised around $70,000.
While Republicans are certainly targeting Space in 2010, Space’s fairly moderate record on important district issues, his hand in initially helping to block healthcare legislation from leaving the House Energy and Commerce Committee, his status as an incumbent, and the $975,000 cash-on-hand he has amassed, should be more than enough to keep him in office, and the Ohio 18th is likely to remain in Democratic hands.