Dear Readers: We will be reacting to Wednesday night’s second Republican presidential primary debate on the “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Like so many other female politicians, Nikki Haley faces...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The presidential voting gap between the nation’s most populous counties and the rest of the nation has nearly tripled from 1996 to 2020. -- The 2000 and 2016 elections were the biggest contributors to this gap. -- While there is nearly a 40-point difference...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Negative partisanship -- the tendency for partisans to be animated by dislike for the other side -- has become a powerful force in American politics. -- This dynamic makes it harder for partisans to cross over to the other side and keeps general elections...

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our Politics is Everything podcast, we discuss the third indictment of former President Trump as well as today’s Crystal Ball article. Listen and subscribe here or wherever you get your podcasts. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Just about 150...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The tipping point state in a presidential election is the state that gets the winning candidate over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. -- In the last two presidential elections, the tipping point state was Wisconsin. -- In the postwar era, the tipping...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states. -- Democrats start with a small advantage, although both sides begin south of what they need to win. -- We consider a rematch of the 2020 election -- Joe Biden versus Donald...

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome polling expert Natalie Jackson back to the Crystal Ball this week. She explores Donald Trump’s continued strength in the GOP despite a recent indictment. We also urge you to listen to our recent Politics is Everything podcast episode with Natalie, where we discussed Trump,...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In 2020, Donald Trump would have needed to flip 37 additional Electoral College votes to reach 269, thereby winning an effective majority in the Electoral College, thanks to a likely Republican advantage if the Electoral College produces a tied outcome. -- The 2024 Electoral...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Nearly 600 days before the election, an early citizen forecast -- using voters’ expectations of likely election outcomes rather than vote intentions -- estimates an even chance for a Republican or Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election. -- However, while citizens estimate that...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection. -- However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As Joe Biden seeks a second presidential term, his time as vice president shows how the office can be a springboard to the presidency. -- Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, is learning that the vice presidency may not be an advantage in seeking...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020. -- In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans....