Center for Politics Welcomes Bouie, Krebs, Ramadan, and Setmayer as Resident Scholars for 2021-2022 Academic Year

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is excited to name four resident scholars for the 2021-2022 academic year. They are acclaimed journalist Jamelle Bouie; former Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs; former Virginia Del. David Ramadan; and political communications veteran and commentator Tara...

How the Electorate Changes from Presidential to Midterm Years

A higher share of white college graduates could help Democrats, but a decline in nonwhite voters could hurt them

Dear Readers: Join us tonight from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign,...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 15, 2021

CA-GOV Moves to Safe Democratic following Newsom recall win; Indiana Republicans don't go for the jugular on House map proposal

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday evening from 6-7 p.m. eastern for a conversation with Matthew Barzun, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Kingdom as well as Sweden. Barzun will be discussing his experiences representing the United States abroad, his work as the national finance chair for Barack Obama’s presidential...

Redistricting in America, Part Seven: The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Democrats seek more from a region they already dominate

  Dear Readers: This is the seventh part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest,...

Redistricting in America, Part Six: The Great Lakes

Democrats will try to wring a bit more out of Illinois, while divided government, judges, and new redistricting methods cloud the outlook elsewhere

Dear Readers: This is the sixth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, Part Three looked at four larger states in the South, Part Four considered the West Coast and the Southwest, and...

How Donald Trump Turned Off Swing Voters in 2020

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The number of swing voters -- those who change their minds between presidential elections -- has been declining over time. -- However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections. -- Swing voters helped...

Redistricting in America, Part Four: The West Coast and Southwest

What will commissions (and Democrats) draw out West?

Dear Readers: This is the fourth part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South, and Part Three looked at four larger states in the South. This week, we’re analyzing the West Coast and the...

Cuomo Out: NY-GOV Remains Likely Democratic in Ratings

One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in...

Redistricting in America, Part Three: The Republicans’ Southern Prizes

The GOP gerrymandering possibilities in FL, GA, NC, and TX

Dear Readers: This is the third part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview, and Part Two covered several small-to-medium-sized states in the Greater South. This week, we’re analyzing four big Southern states – Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas – which, together, represent a...

Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors OH-11 and OH-15: Wins for Clinton and Trump? In two special elections last night, Ohio voters in two congressional districts went to...

Redistricting in America, Part Two: The Dark Red Greater South

The Outlook in AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, & WV

Dear Readers: This is the second part of our multi-part series on congressional redistricting. Part One provided a national overview. We will cover additional regions in the coming weeks. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans dominate redistricting in a number of small-to-medium-sized states in the Deep...

Notes on the State of Politics: July 28, 2021

TX-6 recap; polls show tightening Newsom recall; connection between vaccination rates and 2020 presidential results

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. This week, we are featuring contributions from two of our stellar Crystal Ball interns: Parakram Karnik notes a couple of tightening polls in the California...