Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee
Republican candidates: Scott Walker, Milwaukee County executive
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: September 16, 2010
On Tuesday the GOP picked longtime frontrunner Scott Walker to be its gubernatorial nominee, as he easily dispatched former Congressman Mark Neumann in the party primary. While Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is personally popular, his candidacy suffers from association with two-term Gov. Jim Doyle (D), whose ratings are in the cellar. Barrett recently tossed the dice by airing a TV ad showing his gruesome wounds after he heroically saved a woman from a crazed attacker in August 2009. While voters salute what he did, it is probably not enough to enable him to overcome the GOP wave.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Jim Doyle (D) was in deep trouble for reelection, so he bowed to the inevitable last August and decided against seeking a third term. The economic recession made Doyle, along with many of his fellow chief executives, unpopular. Either GOP nominee, frontrunner and likely primary winner Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker or underdog former Congressman Mark Neumann, will start out as a November favorite. On the Democratic side, after Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton decided not to run, the logical nominee became possible Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who lost to Doyle in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary. A strange event in 2009 made Barrett even more personally popular. The mayor was badly injured while trying to protect a citizen from a vicious, unprovoked attack. But high personal approval may not be enough to win the statehouse. LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Jim Doyle (D) was in deep trouble for reelection, so he bowed to the inevitable in August and decided against seeking a third term. The economic recession has made Doyle, and many of his fellow chief executives, unpopular. Either likely GOP nominee, frontrunner Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker or underdog former Congressman Mark Neumann, may start out as a November favorite. But it’s way too soon to know for sure, and it’s unclear who the Democratic nominee will be. So far Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is running for the party nod, and she may be joined by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who lost to Doyle in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary and could be the early leader. Recently, Barrett was badly injured while trying to protect a citizen from a vicious, unprovoked attack. This has made him a hero, but also perhaps less likely to run because of health and family reasons.
Update: March 19, 2009
Jim Doyle (D-WI): It looks likely that Doyle will run for a third term, although Doyle has not announced anything definite. He has been elected with modest pluralities in both 2002 and 2006. While not the most popular of Wisconsin’s modern Governors, Doyle has generally kept his base happy and has been acceptable enough to independents. Given Barack Obama’s solid 56% majority in the Badger State, a Democratic incumbent has some reason for optimism. Still, the GOP has two credible possible opponents for Doyle in 2010: former Congressman Mark Neumann, who lost a U.S. Senate race narrowly in 1998, and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker. Keep an eye on this one. LEANS DEMOCRATIC, but potentially competitive.