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Texas Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidates: Bill White, mayor of Houston

Republican candidates: Rick Perry, incumbent governor

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: September 16, 2010

We’ve long written about “Perry fatigue”, brought on by the record decade-long tenure of the sometimes controversial Gov. Rick Perry (R), who is running for yet another four-year term and perhaps the title of “Governor for Life”. Some party divisions linger from Perry’s bitter primary battle with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, whom Perry sounded defeated. Democratic nominee Bill White, the mayor of Houston, is a credible candidate. Several recent polls have suggested a toss-up. We have a hard time believing that Perry will lose in deeply Red Texas in a strongly Republican year so we are keeping the contest “Leans R”. Still, it is worth watching.

Update: June 17, 2010

With the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), Gov. Rick Perry (R) is looking more secure in November over Democrat Bill White. Hutchison must have had to swallow hard to do her party duty, given the nastiness of her primary battle with Perry. Republicans are also assisting the Green Party—not normally an ideological ally—to get a ballot line for November. The Greens may drain a few percentage points from White, who needs every vote he can get in Texas in a Republican-leaning year.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Rick Perry (R) is trying for an unprecedented third four-year term. If he wins it, he will serve as governor for 14 consecutive years, having inherited half of George W. Bush’s second term from 2000-2002. After Perry’s paltry 39% in a multi-candidate race in 2006, few thought he could achieve his goal, especially since popular U. S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison challenged him for re-nomination in the GOP primary. Yet Perry shrewdly moved well to the right, even mentioning possible secession for Texas from Obama’s America. In most states, this kind of extremism would have meant political termination, but this is Texas, where the Republican Party base is exceptionally conservative. Perry successfully made Hutchison the scapegoat for all of Washington, D.C.’s failures, and he demolished her in a March primary. Well-regarded Houston Mayor Bill White is the Democratic nominee, but it would be a giant upset if he won, in this GOP-leaning year and in this state in particular—though some think Perry fatigue will make the November results closer than usual. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Rick Perry (R) is trying for an unprecedented third four-year term. If he wins it, he will serve as governor for 14 consecutive years, having inherited half of George W. Bush’s second term from 2000-2002. After Perry’s paltry 39% in a multi-candidate race in 2006, few thought he could achieve his goal, especially since popular U. S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison is challenging him for re-nomination in the GOP primary. Yet Perry has shrewdly moved well to the right, even mentioning possible secession for Texas from Obama’s America. In most states, this kind of extremism would have meant political termination, but this is Texas, where the Republican Party base is exceptionally conservative. Perry is leading Hutchison in some polls, though in recent samplings, Hutchison appears to have come back fully into contention. She has the financing and name identification to make this Perry’s toughest fight. Her best argument is that Perry might conceivably lose the general election to a Democrat, such as former Bush Ambassador Tom Schieffer (brother of CBS’s Bob Schieffer) or perhaps Houston Mayor Bill White (if he can be convinced to switch from the Senate contest). A Democratic upset is a stretch, of course. Many think Perry has worn out his welcome with a large portion of the Lone Star electorate, and an “anybody-but-Perry” effort might actually pull off a November win. Should Hutchison be the GOP gubernatorial nominee, though, she will win easily.

Update: March 26, 2009

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX): What a Texas rumble this one is going to be! Gov. Perry is already the longest serving Governor in Texas history (since December 2000, succeeding George W. Bush), but he wants four more years. Problem is, he’s not terribly popular, and he received just 39% in a wild multi-candidate contest in 2006 to win reelection. His record shows he can’t be counted out, but Perry has the toughest possible GOP primary opponent in U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Other Lone Star State pols on the GOP side have been musing about running, but it is difficult to see anyone else squeezing out some daylight in the Perry-Hutchison face-off. One thing is certain: this Republican primary will be one of the nastiest in the nation in 2010. Perry is expected to court social conservatives with special ardor, given Hutchison’s mildly pro-choice stand on abortion, and Perry will not yield his governor’s chair easily. If Hutchison wins the primary, she’ll certainly be favored in the fall. If Perry wins, though, the candidacy of a respected moderate Democrat, such as Houston Mayor Bill White, becomes viable, since many Hutchison voters might back him to end Perry’s long reign. Former Ambassador Tom Schieffer, a George W. Bush ally who is nonetheless running as a Democrat, may be a fallback candidate. (His brother is CBS Face the Nation host Bob Schieffer.) The unusual Kinky Friedman may toss his hat into the Democratic primary as well. The vast majority of ambitious pols other than these ‘big boys (and one girl)’ will likely choose to wait for Hutchison’s open Senate seat, which Hutchison may or may not resign before the gubernatorial election. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD, especially if Hutchison is the GOP nominee.