Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Scott Heidepriem, state senator
Republican candidates: Dennis Daugaard, Lieutenant governor of SD
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 10, 2010
No surprises here. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard swept to victory in the GOP primary and is a solid favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Scott Heidepriem. Retiring Gov. Mike Rounds (R) has maintained high popularity, and he will help Daugaard considerably.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is still popular after two terms, but can’t run again. The GOP primary will probably determine Rounds’ successor. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson are leading the Republican pack. One major Democrat, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, decided to seek reelection instead of the statehouse, with an eye towards succeeding Sen. Tim Johnson (D) in 2014. State Sen. Scott Heidepriem will fill the Democratic slot on the ballot. Heidepriem is an able candidate but will need a lot of luck to win this one. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is still popular after two terms, but can’t run again. The GOP primary will probably determine Rounds’ successor. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson are leading the Republican pack. The only Democrat with a good chance to become governor, Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, has decided to seek reelection, with an eye towards succeeding Sen. Tim Johnson (D) in 2014. State Sen. Scott Heidepriem will fill the Democratic slot on the ballot. Heidepriem is an able candidate but will need a lot of luck to win this one.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Mike Rounds (R-SD): OPEN SEAT. Mike Rounds has been a very popular Governor, and he would easily win a third term were he not limited to two. South Dakota is a state with highly personalized politics, and while it leans Republican overall, the voters are more than willing to elect Democrats they like, such as U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson and Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Democrats hope that Herseth Sandlin will run for Governor in 2010. Her grandfather, Ralph Herseth, held the post from 1959 to 1961 (another dynasty watch). If she does, Herseth Sandlin might well win it. The Republicans have a good dozen statewide and legislative officeholders who are reported to be interested in trying to hold the statehouse for the GOP, including Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard, Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman, and state Sen. Dave Knudson. Herseth Sandlin’s decision about a candidacy might shake out the Republican field, one way or the other, but it is too soon to know how this contest will develop. Keep in mind that South Dakota has the nation’s longest consecutive winning streak for one party’s gubernatorial nominees; the GOP has won eight elections in a row there. That suggests how strong the Republican tie is among state voters. Of course, you could also make a claim that the Democrats are due one. TOSS-UP.