Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Vincent Sheheen, state senator
Republican candidates: Nikki Haley, state Representative
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 24, 2010
If politics is entertainment, then South Carolina has become Broadway. Who woulda thunk it? To no one’s surprise, state Rep. Nikki Haley roared to a massive victory in the GOP gubernatorial runoff against white-bread Congressman Gresham Barrett. Having come agonizingly close to an outright majority in the first primary two weeks ago, Haley crushed Barrett by 65% to 35%. (This surprised some state observers, who had predicted something closer to 55% for Haley.) As everyone now knows, Haley is poised to become the first female Sikh Indian governor of any American state (though she says she has converted to Christianity). The national party actually got the candidate it wanted here, recognizing the image-changing potential of a Haley governorship. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and a host of other party stars weighed in for Haley. As likely as her November victory appears today, Haley’s candidacy is not without risks. During the campaign two men involved in Palmetto State politics claimed to have had affairs with the married, “family values” Haley. The claims remain unproven, and Haley was given the benefit of the doubt. Should there be any further revelations, however, Haley could be damaged in the general election. The Palmetto State has been deeply embarrassed by its erratic outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford (R), whose hidden relationship with an Argentinean woman and irresponsible abandonment of his duties made South Carolina a national laughing stock. Sanford supported Haley, but so did his former wife Jenny; there was no question which Sanford’s support was more helpful. (In one of the oddest moments of the 2010 campaign season so far, both Sanford and his ex-wife showed up at Haley’s victory party, while infidelity-challenged Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign song, “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow,” played in the background. You can’t make this stuff up.) The Democrats have chosen a charismatic, moderate state senator, Vince Sheheen, as their nominee for governor. Every now and then, South Carolina voters will elevate a Democrat to the statehouse, but usually the Republicans have to be divided or scandalized. So far that isn’t true, and the national GOP will pull out all the stops for Haley. Barring further disclosures about Haley, we rate this one LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Update: June 17, 2010
With the endorsement of the third-place GOP primary candidate, AG Henry McMaster, Nikki Haley appears to have the Republican nomination in the bag over Congressman Gresham Barrett in next Tuesday’s (June 22nd) runoff. In this state, we always have to add, “barring further revelations.” Any Republican will be favored in November, but Democrat Vincent Sheheen is quite able.
Update: June 10, 2010
Remarkably, Nikki Haley survived and even prospered in the midst of two allegations of marital infidelity. Despite all the smoke, voters either decided there was no fire, or they preferred not to acknowledge the fire because it was started by two male cads. Haley easily finished first in the Republican primary with 49%, almost enough to avoid a runoff. Congressman Gresham Barrett grabbed second place with 22%. Haley starts out as the heavy favorite in the June 22 runoff, but Barrett has an outside chance if he can get the endorsements of Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and Attorney General Henry McMaster. And who knows what revelations might pop up over the next two weeks? On the other hand, national GOP leaders have all but endorsed Haley and are trying to get Barrett to concede and cancel the runoff. Meanwhile, state Sen. Vince Sheheen won a large majority in the Democratic primary. He’s an articulate, attractive nominee but faces difficult odds and will need some big breaks to become competitive in the conservative Palmetto State.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is term limited, and just about everyone is grateful for that. Sanford has become a tremendous embarrassment to the proud Palmetto State, and his cavalier abandonment of duty to pursue eye-popping adultery with an Argentine “soul mate” has Sanford unpopular even in his own party. After the Sanford experience, one would have thought that only a squeaky clean, upstanding, maybe even boring politician would have a chance to win here. So much for assumptions. On the GOP side, Congressman Gresham Barrett (R) and state Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) were expected to do reasonably well, with controversial Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer also in the hunt. But a little known state representative, Nikki Haley, vaulted to the top of the polling pile in May thanks to strong backing from Sarah Palin and especially Jenny (the ex-Mrs.) Sanford, who is more popular, given what she has endured, than anyone in public life in South Carolina. Then came the “blogger scandal”. Just a couple weeks before the June 8th primary, Will Folks, a former Mark Sanford aide, claimed he had had an affair with the married Haley, who is running as yet another “family values” social conservative. Folks is, um, unusual, and everyone is awaiting the proof that Folks says he has, if it exists. Everything he has produced so far is circumstantial. With a new TV ad prominently featuring her husband, Haley is still likely to make it into the run-off with one of the male candidates. Goodness knows what will happen from there in this Peyton Place of a state that specializes in dirty politics. Democrats are pinning their hopes either on Education Superintendent Jim Rex, who was elected statewide and is well regarded, or youthful state Sen. Vincent Sheheen. That contest is close with Sheheen thought to have a slight edge. It’s possible to imagine a Democratic victory, given the turmoil on the GOP side, but it is always a giant upset when any Democrat wins in South Carolina. One certainty is that Mark Sanford will never be in major public office again. Incredibly, he was once viewed as a possible presidential candidate, which just goes to show how little we actually know about some people who seek the White House. John Edwards in next-door North Carolina proves the point, too. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is term limited, and just about everyone is grateful for that. Sanford has become a tremendous embarrassment to the proud Palmetto State, and his cavalier abandonment of duty to pursue eye-popping adultery with an Argentine “soul mate” has made association with Sanford the kiss of death. He only remains in office because few appear to want Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) to succeed to the governorship, even though Bauer has (more or less) pledged not to seek a full term if he succeeds to the top post. Whatever happens on succession, you can be sure that only a clean, upstanding, maybe even boring politician will win here in 2010. On the GOP side, Congressman Gresham Barrett (R) or state Attorney General Henry McMaster (R) may fit the bill, but for once, having an “R” next to one’s name on the ballot may prove at least a slight detriment. Democrats are pinning their hopes on Education Superintendent Jim Rex, who was elected statewide and is well regarded. Rex is only exploring a bid at this point. Youthful state Sen. Vincent Shaheen is definitely running. It’s possible to imagine a Rex victory, but it is always a giant upset when a Democrat wins in South Carolina. The added controversy involving Congressman Joe Wilson (R-SC), who shouted “you lie!” at President Obama recently, underlined the importance for South Carolinians of choosing candidates who will not embarrass the state. One certainty is that Mark Sanford will never be in major public office again. Incredibly, he was once viewed as a possible presidential candidate, which just goes to show how little we actually know about some people who seek the White House. John Edwards in next-door North Carolina proves the point anew in a bipartisan way.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC): OPEN SEAT. Gov. Sanford is completing his two terms, and so both parties will have robust primaries. On the Democratic side, a former Democratic party chairman, Joe Erwin, and two state Superintendents of Education, the incumbent Jim Rex and the former, Inez Tenenbaum (a failed U.S. Senate candidate in 2004) head the list, with various state legislators as possible contenders, too. A youthful state senator, Vincent Shaheen, is attracting some attention on the Democratic side. Over on the Republican ballot, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, Attorney General Henry McMaster, Carroll Campbell (namesake son of the late former two-term Governor), Congressman Gresham Barrett (now definitely in), and state House Majority Leader Jim Merrill are all prominently on the list. Now, just compare the candidate fields. Which one is more substantial? Every now and then a Democrat wins the Palmetto State Governorship–the last was Jim Hodges (1999-2003)–but conditions must be just right: the Republicans must split, nominate a weak candidate, and have the national wind at their face. It might happen in 2010, but the early money is on the Republicans, as usual. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.