Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans I
Democratic candidates: Frank Caprio, RI state treasurer
Republican candidates: John Robitaille, Governor Carcieri ex-communications director
Independent candidates: Lincoln Chafee, former U.S. senator
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) is term limited. The early guess was that this Blue state—by some measures the most Democratic of the fifty—would inevitably return to the Democratic Party fold in 2010, after 16 years of Republican statehouse control. Well, this is half right. No Republican is going to win it. But the likely Democratic candidate, Treasurer Frank Caprio, will have his hands full with former GOP U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent. Chafee lost his Senate seat to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in the anti-Bush Democratic sweep of 2006, but it wasn’t because the state’s voters disliked Chafee. The Chafee name is still golden in Rhode Island, so this is a comeback that might happen. Still, it is always tough for an Independent to organize get-out-the-vote efforts, and the Democrat’s big lead in this category might enable to pull off a November win. This one is not over by a long shot, but for the moment, LEANS INDEPENDENT.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Donald Carcieri (R) is term limited. The early guess is that this Blue state–by some measures the most Democratic of the fifty–would inevitably return to the Democratic party fold in 2010, after 16 years of Republican statehouse control. Well, this is half right. No Republican is going to win it. But the likely Democratic candidate, Treasurer Frank Caprio, will have his hands full with former GOP U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent. Chafee lost his Senate seat to Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse in the anti-Bush Democratic sweep of 2006, but it wasn’t because the state’s voters disliked Chafee. The Chafee name is still golden in Rhode Island, so this is a comeback that might happen.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Don Carcieri (R-RI): OPEN SEAT. Isn’t it remarkable that,by 2010, the Governorship of the most Democratic state in the Union will have been occupied by Republicans (Lincoln Almond and Don Carcieri) for sixteen consecutive years? Partly, this is because voters view the state chief executive office very differently than a Senate seat; the former is about nuts and bolts governing, the latter about liberal vs. conservative ideology. In any event, this anomaly will probably come to an end in 2010, when Carcieri is term limited. No one in either party knows the identity of the nominees at this early stage, but the Democratic team is impressive (Treasurer Frank Caprio, who is the early frontrunner, Attorney General Patrick Lynch, and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts) and the GOP contingent is underwhelming (an unknown state representative or two). The only possible spice in the race is former U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, who served as a Republican from 2000 to 2007 but who may run for the statehouse as an Independent. Yes, Democrats have thrown away the statehouse before (three times with unpopular state Sen. Myrth York as their nominee), but the odds against this happening again are considerable. Chaffee is an unpredictable element worth watching, but this one still LEANS DEMOCRATIC.