Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Dan Onorato, Allegheny county executive
Republican candidates: Tom Corbett, Attorney General
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is term limited, and the Pennsylvania tradition calls for rotation to the Republicans now, which means the new GOP party nominee, state Attorney General Tom Corbett. The Democrats nominated Allegheny County Executive Don Onorato, who is a solid candidate but not known statewide and is running against the tide. The GOP believes history gives it the edge, since the parties have flipped the governorship every eight years for decades. But the Keystone State is now substantially Blue—much more so than in the past, so any Democratic nominee has a fighting chance. For now, history rules. LEANS REPUBLICAN
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is term limited, and the Pennsylvania tradition calls for rotation to the Republicans now, probably state Attorney General Tom Corbett. Congressman Jim Gerlach (R) is also a credible candidate, though without a statewide base. It is unclear whom the Democrats will nominate, though it will probably be either Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato or state Auditor General Jack Wagner. Former Congressman Joseph Hoeffel, the unsuccessful challenger to U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter when last he was a Republican in 2004, is also trying for a comeback. The GOP believes history gives it the edge, since the parties have flipped the governorship every eight years for decades. But the Keystone State is now substantially Blue–much more so than in the past–so any Democratic nominee has a fighting chance.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA): OPEN SEAT. The popular two-term Governor, Ed Rendell, is stepping down, and he hopes he can pass along the statehouse to a member of his own party. Who will that be? It’s surprising how formless the contest is on the Democratic side. Several Democratic congressmen, state legislators, and local officials have been mentioned, but to the best of anyone’s knowledge no one has absolutely been given the inside track by Rendell and others. If there’s a Democratic favorite, it’s probably Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato; Allegheny is Pennsylvania’s second largest county and Onorato is a pro-business moderate like Rendell who has already accumulated a $4 million campaign kitty. Auditor General Jack Wagner (D) and Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham (D) may also run. On the GOP side, while many names are mentioned (such as moderate Congressman Jim Gerlach and Delaware County district attorney Pat Meehan), state Attorney General Tom Corbett seems to be the early favorite. Given the enormous Democratic landslide in the Keystone State in 2008, it’s notable that he won reelection with 52% in a Blue tide. On the other hand, Republicans are now the undisputed minority party in Pennsylvania. Unless it is an incumbent like U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, a GOP nominee needs a strong wind at his back to win statewide in most circumstances. Let’s also not forget the ‘lucky eight’ factor: control of the Pennsylvania Governorship has switched back and forth between the parties every eight years since 1954.TOSS-UP.