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Nevada Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R

Democratic candidates: Rory Reid, Clark County commissioner

Republican candidates: Brian Sandoval, former NV attorney general

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 7, 2010

In a year when Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid is being severely tested in Nevada, the state’s Democrats chose to balance the ticket by nominating his son Rory for Governor. That’s right, a controversial and embattled U.S. senator in dire straits was paired on the ballot with a dynastic candidate from his own household, thus offering the voters two helpings of an unpopular surname. Tea Party Republican nominee Sharron Angle is so controversial that she may reelect Harry Reid—though few seem willing to bet on that outcome—but the Democrats have ended their hopes for the governorship already. Republican nominee Brian Sandoval should easily dispatch Rory Reid on November 2nd. By the way, should Harry Reid survive, it is Republicans who will regret their failure to recruit a sure winner like Congressman Dean Heller, who probably would have been elected to the Senate with many votes to spare.

Update: June 10, 2010

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) became the first incumbent to be sent packing from a statehouse in 2010. Former Judge Brian Sandoval, the first Hispanic from Nevada to ascend to the federal bench, dispatched him easily. Sandoval is a heavy favorite over local official Rory Reid (D), son of U.S. Sen. Harry Reid.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) is running for a second term, but you can’t find odds even in Las Vegas that he’ll last beyond 2010. Gibbons has been involved in a soap opera sex scandal since he took office, with a divorcing first lady and tales of sexual harassment. Consistently and deeply unpopular, we have long bet that Gibbons would lose the June 8th GOP primary to former Attorney General Brian Sandoval, the first Hispanic federal judge from Nevada who resigned the lifetime post to prepare for the 2010 election. The Democrats are set to nominate Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (who’ll also be on the 2010 ballot for reelection, which is awkward). Ironically, Harry Reid secured a judgeship for Sandoval to get him out of politics a few years back; now Sandoval may end up running against Reid’s son, and Sandoval is the favorite in both the primary and the general election. The dynasty factor and his father’s current unpopularity appear to be hurting Rory Reid’s chances. As long as Gibbons isn’t the GOP nominee, LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) says he’s running for a second term, but you can’t find odds even in Las Vegas that he’ll last beyond 2010. Many are betting the governor won’t run in the end. Gibbons has been involved in a soap opera sex scandal since he took office, with a divorcing first lady and tales of sexual harassment. Consistently and deeply unpopular, he could lose in the GOP primary to former Attorney General Brian Sandoval, the first Hispanic federal judge from Nevada who resigned the lifetime post to prepare for the 2010 election. The Democrats are set to nominate Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (who’ll also be on the 2010 ballot for reelection, which is awkward). Ironically, Harry Reid secured a judgeship for Sandoval to get him out of politics a few years back; now Sandoval may end up running against Reid’s son, and Sandoval is the favorite in both the primary and the general election. The dynasty factor and his father’s current unpopularity appear to be hurting Rory Reid’s chances. Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman makes noises about running as a Democrat or an Independent but he probably won’t do it. It must be counted as remarkable that, with smarmy sex scandals weighing down both of Nevada’s top Republicans, Gov. Gibbons and Sen. John Ensign, the Republican nominee (if Sandoval) will be the initial favorite to win.

Update: March 26, 2009

Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-NV): What a mess for the GOP. First-term Governor Jim Gibbons, a former congressman elected in 2006, has been mired in scandal from the day he took over. Gibbons has been plagued by charges of sexual harassment, followed by a messy divorce in which the first lady would not vacate the Governor’s Mansion, plus various other controversies and improprieties. Not surprisingly, he has rock-bottom popularity, and is very probably a one-termer. Already, two Republicans have decided to challenge Gibbons in the party primary: former state Sen. Joe (Give ‘em) Heck and North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. The general election will not be especially competitive if Gibbons is the Republican nominee, but if he doesn’t run again or is defeated in the primary, this dynamic Wild West state of casinos, legalized prostitution, strong unions, Hispanic population growth, and in-migration from California could still feature a closely fought election. The Democrats are on the upswing here, as evidenced by Barack Obama’s comfortable 55% triumph in John McCain’s backyard in 2008, and that gives the party hope that they can win a gubernatorial election for the first time since 1996. The most prominent candidate appears to be Rory Reid, Clark County commissioner and son of U.S. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid–who will also be on the ballot in 2010. The dynastic factor will be one to watch: Will Nevadans react well or poorly to the idea of voting for two Reids at once? No doubt, other Democrats will be competing in the primary, too. As for the GOP, conditions have become even more unsettled as Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R) has been indicted for actions he took while serving as state Treasurer. The resolution of these charges will determine whether Krolicki could be a possible successor to Gibbons or a challenger for Harry Reid in 2010. Meanwhile, Gibbons and Krolicki are opening feuding with one another, sniping about petty matters of all kinds–just what the GOP didn’t need. Nevada politics is complicated, isn’t it? If Gibbons is the GOP nominee, LEANS DEMOCRATIC. Otherwise, a TOSS-UP.