Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D
Democratic candidates: Martin O’Malley, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: Bob Ehrlich, former governor of MD
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5, 2010
For a while after Scott Brown’s upset Senate victory in January, all things seemed possible for the GOP this year, even in deeply Blue states. And in fact, those dreams are becoming reality in many Democratic states. But Maryland appears to have chosen a different path. Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) has a healthy 11% lead (52% to 41% among likely voters) over former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R), according to a new Washington Post poll. While Republicans are crying foul, insisting that the Post, a strongly Democratic newspaper, is trying to influence the election results, Ehrlich’s path to victory was always narrow. He won in 2002 against a deeply flawed Democratic candidate, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, and an incumbent Democratic governor is a much tougher foe. We are changing the rating on this race from Toss-Up to Leans D.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) is running for a second term, and a bad economy has given him so-so ratings. Now he’s gotten the only Republican opponent who could possibly dethrone him in this heavily Democratic state, the man he defeated four years ago, former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). O’Malley starts out with the advantage in a heavily Democratic state, and Ehrlich will have to run a perfect race to win. But we need to see how big the Republican wave is this November. If you see Ehrlich winning early on election night, then you know the Democrats are in for a very unhappy night. TOSS UP.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) is running for a second term, but a bad economy could produce a seriously contested Democratic primary. Several heavyweights are considering entering the primary, but there have been no announcements–and O’Malley could still get lucky. Possibly waiting in the fall is former Gov. Bob Erhlich (R), who lost his bid for a second term to O’Malley. Erhlich is biding his time, seeing if a rematch is wise. If he runs, it means the Republican believes he has a 50-50 chance of winning. No other Republican will have much of a chance in Maryland, and even with Ehrlich, it’s dicey. A Democrat starts out with enormous advantages in this deeply Blue state.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Martin O’Malley (D-MD): O’Malley will be running for a second term, and as a Democratic incumbent in a heavily Democratic state, it is difficult to categorize him as anything but the frontrunner. Still, O’Malley secured passage of substantial tax increases early in his first term, and that put a major dent in his popularity ratings. To get to the Governor’s Office, O’Malley defeated one-term Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich in 2006. Now Ehrlich is considering a rematch, though he hasn’t made up his mind. For Ehrlich to win, the midterm elections would have to have a discernible GOP tilt across the country, just as in 2002 when he last won. If Ehrlich chooses to sit the race out, Republicans are probably in a hopeless position. Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R), the controversial new national GOP chairman, is not running, and the GOP has been decimated by Democratic wave victories in 2006 and 2008. The party has an exceptionally thin bench in the Free State. For now, LEANS DEMOCRATIC.