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Maine Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidates: Libby Mitchell, state senator

Republican candidates: Paul LePage, Waterville Mayor

Independent candidates: Eliot Cutler, ex-OMB Associate Director for Natural Resources, Energy, and Science

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 5, 2010

This contest has seen Republican Paul LePage fare well in most but not all surveys taken so far against Democrat Libby Mitchell and Independent Eliot Cutler, who may be cutting into the Democratic vote—though Mainers disagree even about that. LePage is a Tea Party candidate and is a more conservative candidate than Maine normally elects, but 2010 may be the exception to many rules around the nation. It’s too early to lean this to LePage, however. He’s an untested candidate given to counter-productive outbursts, most recently in his assertion that as Governor, he’d be in the headlines a lot telling President Obama to “go to hell”. LePage’s base may love that, but independent swing voters do not appreciate intemperateness.

Update: June 10, 2010

We now know the party nominees but not a whole lot more. Democrat Libby Mitchell, the state Senate president, will face off against Republican Paul LePage, the mayor of Waterville. But independent Eliot Cutler, who once worked for Senator Ed Muskie (D-ME), is a serious candidate. Maine likes independents, with three gubernatorial terms having been filled by two independent governors since the 1970s. Good luck figuring this one out until the fall.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. John Baldacci (D) is term-limited, and it is a free-for-all in both parties. In fact, we have been told forthrightly by good sources that “undecided” is handily leading the private polls on both sides. One public poll has now confirmed this. Leading Democrats include state Senate President Elizabeth (Libby) Mitchell and former Attorney General Steve Rowe. The probability is that the Democratic nominee will be either Mitchell or Rowe. The GOP is considering Steve Abbott (U.S. Sen. Susan Collins’ former chief of staff), state Sen. Peter Mills, local mayor Paul LePage and wealthy businessman Les Otten along with three others. Even though both U.S. Senate seats are held by Republicans, Democrats often start out as at least a slight favorite for governor, and this is probably the case in the very early going for 2010. However, the GOP cast to the year gives the Republican a real shot. And at least three Independents have already filed for the general election. Why do we mention them, since they go nowhere in most states? In modern times, two Independents (James Longley and Angus King) have held the Maine governorship for a total of 12 years. You just never know in this unpredictable state. TOSS UP.

Update: October 8, 2009

Gov. John Baldacci (D) is term-limited, and it is a free-for-all in both parties. Democrats include state Senate President Elizabeth Mitchell, former Attorney General Steve Rowe, and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli. The GOP is considering Maine and Company CEO Matthew Jacobson, state Sen. Peter Mills, and wealthy businessman Les Otten. Even though both U.S. Senate seats are held by Republicans, Democrats often start out as at least a slight favorite for governor, and this is probably the case in the very early going for 2010.

Update: March 19, 2009

Gov. John Baldacci (D-ME): OPEN SEAT. Here is another formerly Republican state that often elects Democrats–though both U.S. senators are currently Republican. Gov. Baldacci, never overwhelmingly popular during his eight years in office, is term limited, and the apparent frontrunner for the Democratic nomination is former state Attorney General Steve Rowe. It is possible that a Democratic congressman or one or more state legislators could run, however. The Republicans have no instantly logical candidate, though they will certainly find a current or former state legislator or someone from the private sector to carry their banner. Many names are being bandied about, including state Sen. Peter Mills (who lost the governorship in 2006), state House Minority Leader Joshua Tardy, and attorney Steve Abbott, the chief of staff to U.S. Sen. Susan Collins (R). The contest is so formless that all we can do at the moment is call it a TOSS-UP.