Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidates: Pat Quinn, incumbent governor
Republican candidates: Bill Brady, state senator
Independent candidates: Scott Lee Cohen, former 2010 Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor/pawnbroker
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Pat Quinn (D), who succeeded the clownish, corrupt Rod Blagojevich (D) in early 2009, got a remarkable break when state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) announced she would not try to be governor. Madigan might well have defeated Quinn. Then Quinn got a second lucky break when he squeaked to victory over a serious challenger in the party primary, well-funded Comptroller Dan Hynes. Completing his lucky streak, the more conservative GOP candidate, Bill Brady, edged to the winner’s circle by just a couple hundred votes over a moderate who might have been a much tougher competitor in the fall. Can Quinn’s luck hold all the way to November? Sure, he had the embarrassment of Scott Lee Cohen, a shady character nominated for lieutenant governor by the Democrats and forced to resign (and now staging a ridiculous independent gubernatorial candidacy). But bad headlines like that one are par for the course these days in the Land of Lincoln. Quinn has proto-incumbency and seems honest enough—who wouldn’t look good after Blagojevich?—but he’s for sizeable tax increases and presiding over a miserable state economy. Oh, and there’s the little matter of that messy trial for Blago coming up soon, and there’s a suspicion that the ex-governor may want to pull down a few temple columns on his way to a well-guarded vacation at a state-run facility. Few governors in Quinn’s position could be regarded as truly secure. Maybe Illinois’ Democratic nature will save him but his position looks precarious in a volatile race. TOSS UP.
Update: October 8, 2009
Gov. Pat Quinn (D), who succeeded the clownish, corrupt Rod Blagojevich (D) in early 2009, got a remarkable break when state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) announced she would not try to be governor. Madigan might well have defeated Quinn. But now, Quinn is facing another serious challenger in the party primary, well-funded Comptroller Dan Hynes. Quinn has proto-incumbency and seems honest enough–who wouldn’t look good after Blagojevich?–but he’s seeking sizeable tax increases and presiding over a miserable state economy. Few governors in Quinn’s position could be regarded as truly secure. However, the GOP has yet to find a credible general election candidate, so the winner of the Democratic primary will likely be favored in the fall.
Update: March 19, 2009
Gov. Pat Quinn (D-IL): Poor Illinois. The Land of Lincoln finally elected another President, and Governor Rod Blagojevich spoiled it all. When people think of Illinois today, they’re as likely to recall Blago as the face of the state as they are Obama. It’s tough love to say this, but Illinois asked for it. For decades, the state’s politicians and voters tolerated extensive corruption at every level of government. Not one citizen of the state could have said that he was shocked, shocked to find out about their Governor’s deeply cynical movements. After all, his predecessor, George Ryan (R), went to prison too, and half of the state’s Governors over 50 years–and dozens of other officeholders–have been in serious trouble with the law. People get the government they deserve. States with more than their share of crooked officials, such as New Jersey and Louisiana, can exclaim, “Thank God for Illinois!” The most recent circus curtain came down on January 29th, with the state Senate’s conviction and removal from office of the impeached Blagojevich. Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn (D) took the reins of power on that date. Most say he’s honest, but can anyone blame voters for being suspicious of anyone who has spent years at the top of Illinois’ sleazy, dishonest system? Gov. Quinn will have a lot of convincing to do, and he has to do it quickly. Yes, Illinois is a heavily Democratic state in the Age of Obama, but other Democrats (such as Attorney General Lisa Madigan) could challenge Quinn in the 2010 party primary, and reform Republicans such as former Governors Jim Thompson (1977-1991) and Jim Edgar (1991-1998) have been elected for long stretches. It’s not impossible that it could happen again. Until a lot of rancid dust settles, we refuse to call this anything but a TOSS-UP.