Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Keith Allred, founder of The Common Interest
Republican candidates: Butch Otter, incumbent governor
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Butch Otter (R) wants a second term, and in this overwhelmingly GOP state, it will very likely be his—though who wasn’t surprised by Otter’s anemic 54.7% of the vote in the May 25th GOP primary against weak opponents? Tea Party sympathizers were apparently still unhappy about Otter’s failed 2009 attempt to raise the gas tax. Democrats think they have a shot at an upset in November with Keith Allred, a former Harvard professor. It’s true that other Red Western states have elected Democratic chief executives, and Gov. Cecil Andrus (D) long held sway in Idaho a few decades ago. But starting out, Allred has a mountain to climb. LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Butch Otter (R-ID): Otter won a surprisingly close open-seat contest in 2006 for Governor, but that was likely as competitive an election as he is going to experience. Otter is a heavy favorite for reelection in 2010. Democrats would like to nominate Boise Mayor Dave Bieter (D), but it’s doubtful he’ll throw away his political future on this one. REPUBLICAN HOLD.