Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans D
Democratic candidates: Neil Abercrombie, Congressman
Republican candidates: Duke Aiona, Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: September 16, 2010
In the last major primary of 2010 on September 18, Hawaii Democrats will chose either former Congressman Neil Abercrombie, who is leading the polls, or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann as their gubernatorial candidate. Along with everyone else, we’ve assumed the Democrat would win in November. But private polling is suggesting a more competitive race with Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R), the deputy of term-limited Gov. Linda Lingle (R). We’re watching this one, pending the post-primary dust-settling. It will still be hard for Democrats to lose, but tsunamis have been known to swamp this island state.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Linda Lingle (R) is term limited, and almost no one believes that her chosen successor, Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R), will win. Hawaii is just too Democratic a state in the age of its son, Barack Obama, despite the recent 39% plurality victory of Congressman Charles Djou (R) in a special election. Which Democrat will follow Lingle? It is a tight contest between former Congressman Neil Abercrombie or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. Likely Democratic takeover.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Linda Lingle (R) is term limited, and almost no one believes that her chosen successor, Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R), will win. Hawaii is just too Democratic a state in the age of its son, Barack Obama, and Lingle was lucky to get her two terms. Which Democrat will follow Lingle? It will be either Congressman Neil Abercrombie or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI): OPEN SEAT. It’s a blue (red?) moon over the Pacific when any Republican gets elected in the overwhelmingly Democratic state of Hawaii, but Linda Lingle has managed to do it twice. As her two terms as Governor come to a close, you cannot find anyone who believes another Republican will succeed her in Barack Obama’s home state. Lingle will try to install Lt. Gov. James Aiona (R), who was elected with her as a team (no separate election for lieutenant governor), but the odds are with the Democrats. Congressman Neil Abercrombie (D) has announced a gubernatorial bid, and even at age 71, he may be the frontrunner. Other Democratic possibilities include former Congressman Ed Case (D), Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and various state legislators. Leans Democratic turnover.