Skip links

Georgia Governor 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic Candidate: Roy Barnes, former Governor of Georgia

Republican Candidate: Nathan Deal, former Congressman

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Update: October 7, 2010

The GOP leadership in Georgia didn’t much like Secretary of State Karen Handel, but you’d better believe many would now gladly substitute her on the ballot for the man who narrowly defeated her for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, former Congressman Nathan Deal. Georgia’s modern political color is Red, usually very, very Red, and that will probably be enough to carry him to an undistinguished victory over former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) in November. Yet Deal’s problems just keep piling up, stemming from revelations about a failed loan of over $2 million to his son-in-law, who had already declared bankruptcy just a few years earlier. The issue has been compounded by the conflicting financial disclosures from Deal that have come under scrutiny and he has had to amend on several occasions. There were plenty of warnings about Deal, including a congressional ethics investigation aborted by Deal’s resignation from the House, but Republicans chose to ignore them.

Update: October 5, 2010

We all know that former Congressman Nathan Deal, the Republican nominee for governor of Georgia, has turned out to be a scandal-drenched candidate. Yet it is a measure of how Republican the year is turning out to be in the Peach State that Deal is still leading former Gov. Roy Barnes, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, by mid-single digits in public and private polls. It’s possible this rating could change again if more damaging information about Deal emerges. But the Republican seems to have the edge, despite what has already been revealed, and that merits a rating change from Toss-Up to Leans R.

Update: September 16, 2010

It surprises us to have this one listed a Toss Up. We are aware of a couple of public and private polls that show former Congressman Nathan Deal, the GOP nominee, leading former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes outside the margin of error. Maybe it is just a matter of time before this contest becomes as Red as the Georgia clay and the overall election year, and that is the probable outcome. Yet Deal barely won the GOP nod and has ethics problems that keep cropping up in the news. Despite his stunning reelection defeat in 2002, Barnes is a wily politician. So at least for now, we decline to classify the race.

Update: June 3, 2010

Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) is term limited. His Democratic predecessor, Gov. Roy Barnes, is the clear frontrunner to win his party’s nod for the second term that Perdue denied him in 2002. Barnes’ defeat was one of the great upsets that year, and he retains high name identification and Democratic support. Yet Barnes was a controversial chief executive, displaying what many considered arrogance in office, and it remains to be seen whether he can re-make his image enough to win. He is also running is a deeply Red state in a Red year, which complicates his task. At the same time, the Republicans are perfectly capable of blowing this one. They have a sizeable field of potential nominees that has not sorted itself out—which also means they could choose unwisely or split asunder in the process. The Peach State might be the site of an amazing Democratic comeback in 2010, but most state analysts still give the GOP the edge, with prominent Republican candidates such as Secretary of State Karen Handel, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and Congressman Nathan Deal, and state legislator Eric Johnson. Oxendine leads the polls, but this one is not over. We recognize the natural GOP lean in the Peach State, but until we see how the primaries play out, we’ll keep it a Toss-Up.

Update: October 15, 2009

Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) is term limited. His Democratic predecessor, Gov. Roy Barnes, is the surprise early frontrunner to win his party’s nod for the second term that Perdue denied him in 2002. Barnes’ defeat was one of the great upsets that year, and he retains high name identification and Democratic support. Yet many observers wonder whether the arrogance Barnes showed in blowing his likely reelection is just temporarily under wraps. Barnes will be tested by several other candidates in the primary, such as state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and Attorney General Thurbert Baker, and he’s not yet an absolute lock. The Republicans have a rich field of potential nominees that has not sorted itself out–which also means they could choose unwisely or split asunder in the process. The Peach State might be the site of an amazing Democratic comeback in 2010, but most state analysts still give the GOP the edge, with prominent Republican candidates such as Secretary of State Karen Handel, state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and Congressman Nathan Deal. No undisputed frontrunner has yet emerged on the GOP side.

Update: March 26, 2009

Gov. Sonny Perdue (R-GA): OPEN SEAT. Perdue is term limited, and both party primaries are attracting major candidates. For the dominant Republicans, the primary may be a battle between Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who defeated former Christian Coalition leader Ralph Reed in the 2006 primary, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and Secretary of State Karen Handel. A rumor that U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson may run is unsubstantiated; it’s not going to happen. The Democratic cast of characters includes former Adjutant General David Poythress and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, who is African-American. Other statewide officials, congressmen, and state legislators are the subjects of frequent trial balloons. State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D) has committed to run. Even former Gov. Roy Barnes (D), who was defeated for reelection in 2002 by Sonny Perdue, may have the itch to run again. The contest is obviously unsettled, and one suspects the GOP nominee will have a bit of an early edge. But the election is two years off, and the Crystal Ball prefers Toss-Up for now.