Crystal Ball Outlook: Safe R
Democratic candidates: Ethan Berkowitz, former state legislator
Republican candidates: Sean Parnell, governor of AK
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Sean Parnell (R), who has recently succeeded the resigned Sarah Palin (R), is running for his first elective term. Parnell is a Palin ally, with all the advantages and disadvantages that come with that status—and in Alaska, there are more of the former than the latter. With Palin’s backing, he nearly dethroned long-time Congressman Don Young in a 2008 GOP House primary. No doubt, Parnell is grateful he lost that close one since he inherited a better job. Parnell has worked hard to distinguish himself from Palin and establish his own record. Alaskans have an independent mind, but for Parnell, so far so good. Parnell has the initiative and incumbency, and he has utilized both effectively to achieve wide popularity. None of the several Democrats vying to oppose him has any real shot to win, and our bet is that Parnell grabs his own four-year term. LIKELY REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Sean Parnell (R), who has recently succeeded the resigned Sarah Palin (R), is running for his first elective term. Parnell is a Palin ally, with all the advantages and disadvantages that come with that status. With Palin’s backing, he nearly dethroned long-time Congressman Don Young in a 2008 GOP House primary. No doubt, Parnell is grateful he lost that close one since he inherited a better job. But Palin has become much more controversial, even in Alaska, and Parnell will have to work hard to distinguish himself and establish his own record. Alaskans have an independent mind. For Parnell, so far so good. Not surprisingly, state legislators and the news media like Parnell far better than Palin, who was often inaccessible and unprepared. Parnell has the initiative and incumbency, and to this point he has utilized both effectively to achieve wide popularity. If he continues to make the right moves, he could nail down the 2010 election early. If he changes and becomes Palin-like, he will guarantee himself strong GOP and Democratic opposition. Right now, we’d bet Parnell will win his own term.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK): Assuming Palin runs for Governor again instead of challenging U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), as is likely, Palin is close to a shoo-in for a second term, despite her recent troubles in and out of the state. John McCain had been faring poorly in Alaska until Palin was put on the ticket, and then the GOP won the presidential race in the Frontier State with 60%. The controversies that dogged Palin nationally will have relatively little effect on her reelection bid, at least in terms of the outcome. However, her controversial candidacy for Veep has made her the target of much new criticism in Alaska, as residents have learned things about her and her family that they don’t like, and wonder if she is dedicated to her current job or one in a White House in Washington. So far little-known business consultant Bob Poe, a former state administrative official, is the only Democrat in the race. REPUBLICAN HOLD.