Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely R
Democratic candidates: Ron Sparks, commissioner of agriculture of AL
Republican candidates: Robert Bentley, state Congressman
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: July 15, 2010
Populism in Alabama is alive and well. The GOP establishment’s choice for governor, former community colleges chancellor Bradley Byrne, led the first primary in June, but was well below the majority needed to avoid a run-off. On Tuesday, Byrne faced state Rep. Robert Bentley, who squeaked into the runoff by a margin of 208 votes out of 492,480 cast. Bentley edged out Tim James, the son of a former governor. While James never endorsed a candidate in the runoff, Gov. Bob Riley (R), several other prominent GOP congressmen and state leaders, and the big state newspapers rallied to Byrne’s side. Bentley is regarded as somewhat open to the views of the state teachers’ group, the Alabama Education Association, and is almost unknown in elite circles in the state’s capital. Bentley was greatly outspent by Byrne, and had an abbreviated campaign due to uncertainty about his win over James. Still, Bentley won the GOP gubernatorial nomination convincingly, 56% to 44% over Byrne.
How did Bentley do it? Bentley ran a grassroots campaign that was distinctly anti-establishment in a year when that is selling big, especially inside the Republican base. Supporters of Tim James and the fourth place primary finisher, former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, mainly gravitated to Bentley, out of opposition to Byrne. Contrary to pre-primary speculation, there is little evidence that Democrats crossed over in any large numbers to back Bentley (and the AEA).
Bentley starts in a good position for November. His Democratic opponent, Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, who defeated Congressman Artur Davis in the primary, is a moderate who is not unacceptable to the statewide electorate. But any Democrat will have a hard time winning in Alabama in the conservative climate prevailing in 2010. Bentley is inexperienced enough to throw away the election via missteps and gaffes, but we’ve seen no evidence yet that he’s inclined to do that. If Bentley continues along his current path, he’ll be a strong favorite in the fall. For now, being cautious, we’ll label the contest as Leans Republican.
Update: June 17, 2010
The Republican runoff, to be held July 13th, will be between first-place finisher Bradley Byrne and Robert Bentley, who edged Tim James by a handful of votes. It is now obvious that James is not going to pick up enough votes to vault into the runoff. The GOP winner—and it isn’t clear yet whether it will be Byrne or Bentley—is very likely to defeat Democrat Ron Sparks in November.
Update: June 3, 2010
Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term limited. This deeply conservative state, where Barack Obama did poorly, naturally tilts to the GOP. That will be the challenge for surprise Democratic gubernatorial primary winner Ron Sparks, the state’s agriculture commissioner, who defeated favored Congressman Artur Davis (D) on Tuesday. David had hoped to be Alabama’s first African-American governor, but he alienated his base (blacks and liberal whites) with a vote against the Obama health care reform while failing to win over more conservative whites. Sparks might be more competitive in November than Davis was likely to have been, but any Democrat will have an uphill climb. Republicans will choose in a run-off between former State Community College chancellor Bradley Byrne and one of two other Republicans who are virtually tied in the June 2nd voter tallies: state Rep. Robert Bentley (a 2008 Mike Huckabee delegate to the GOP National Convention) and businessman Tim James, the conservative son of former Gov. Fob James (whose second term was served as a Republican). The also-rans, especially the eventual third-place candidate (123,000 primary votes, 25% of the total) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (over 94,000 primary votes, 19% of the total), could determine the winner. Ideologically, they and their supporters might naturally tilt more to Byrne’s opponent unless Byrne can find a way to win them over. LEANS REPUBLICAN HOLD.
Update: October 15, 2009
Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term limited. This deeply conservative state, where Barack Obama did poorly, naturally tilts to the GOP. Congressman Artur Davis (D) hopes to change that, and this impressive African American is the probable Democratic nominee. But even Davis’ fervent admirers admit he’ll have an uphill climb against the Republican candidate that emerges from a large field of contenders. Davis has to hope that the GOP splits asunder in the nominating process, and one of the weaker candidates is nominated.
Update: March 26, 2009
Gov. Bob Riley (R-AL): OPEN SEAT. With Gov. Riley completing his second and final term, Alabama can look forward to a rough and tumble contest to succeed him. The Democrats appear certain to have a competitive match-up between Lt. Gov. (and former Governor) Jim Folsom, Jr. and Congressman Artur Davis (D-AL), an African-American. There is some talk that others may jump in, but Folsom and Davis would probably be the front-runners. If black turnout is high in the primary, as it often is, Davis would be in a good position to win the party nod, but it’s too early to know. The Republicans hoped to get Congressman Jo Bonner (R-AL) into the race, and he would have been the presumed frontrunner, but Bonner bowed out in February. Instead, the GOP will have a choice among state Treasurer Kay Ivey (R), former Judge Roy Moore (R), the social conservative who ran unsuccessfully in the Republican primary against Gov. Riley in 2006, and businessman Tim James (R), son of former Governor Fob James (just like Folsom, whose dad “Kissin’ Jim” is still well remembered as Governor–more legacy candidates). Unquestionably, Alabama is a tough nut for Democrats to crack, especially for an African-American nominee. Barack Obama received just 39% in the state last November. It’s a Republican state, but for now, the contest is unformed and must be listed as a TOSS-UP.