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Arizona

Outlook: Leans Republican


November 8, 2006 Update:

As the Crystal Ball predicted, Sen. Jon Kyl (R) won reelection over Jim Pederson (D) with 53% of the vote.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Sen. Jon Kyl (R) will win reelection over Jim Pederson (D). For Jon Kyl, the fact his lead has held steady through October is far more important than the fact his lead is modest. A last minute push by national Democrats to put this race in play is only slightly more convincing than the national GOP’s push to put Michigan in play, and only a massive tsunami (or should we say sandstorm?) could dislodge Kyl at this point.

August 12, 2006 Update:

Democrats are hoping that Arizona could be the sixth seat they capture to gain control of the Senate. So far, it has simply disappointed them; there is as yet no real indication that Jim Pederson is moving up on Senator Jon Kyl, who maintains a steady if not overwhelming lead.

June 1, 2006 Update:

Senator Jon Kyl continues to lead Jim Pederson, though national Democrats are maintaining their insistence that a Democratic wave could sweep Kyl out and Pederson in.

March 27, 2006 Update:

Not only has Republican Senator Jon Kyl gotten off to a strong start, but the consensus in Arizona is that Democratic challenger Jim Pederson has gotten off to a remarkably slow start. At least so far, the conditions necessary for tossing out an incumbent Senator are simply not present in the Grand Canyon State.


Background

Republican Jon Kyl is in reasonably good shape for election to his third term, though Democrats are touting well-funded party chair Jim Pederson. Having announced in mid-September that he is indeed running, Pederson and his very large wallet–as always–must command our attention.

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano will win reelection handily in the Grand Canyon State, and that may help Pederson. But we would still bet on Kyl, in part because he has done nothing to alienate the state during his two terms–and Arizona, on the whole, still tilts a bit to the Republicans.

Candidates

Jon Kyl (I) – Republican – Second Quarter Raised: $1,959,104 | Cash on Hand: $7,119,562
Website

Jim Pederson – Democrat – Second Quarter Raised: $2,342,180 | Cash on Hand: $1,722,661
Website

John Verkamp – Democrat – Second Quarter Raised: $525,789.26 | Cash on Hand: $1,049,710.60
Website

Leonard Clark – Democrat – Army National Guardsman, and affiliated with Progressive Democrats of America