Outlook: Leans Republican
June 1, 2006 Update:
In this heavily Democratic state, Republican Gov. Donald Carcieri has to be concerned about Democratic Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty. Carcieri is still leading in public and private polls, but a Republican in Rhode Island simply cannot be a cinch in a difficult year for the GOP, such as 2006.
Governor Donald Carcieri is maintaining the slightest lead over Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty. Carcieri’s only flaw is that he is a Republican in the most Democratic state in the Union. He may be able to pull it out, or he may be–like Gov. Bob Ehrlich in Maryland–an unintended victim of Presidnet Bush and the Iraq war.
Much like Massachusetts, Rhode Island is not a state where one would expect to find many Republican governors. Much like Massachusetts, that expectation is wrong. The GOP elected businessman Donald Carcieri in 2002, succeeding another two-term Republican Governor, Lincoln Almond.
Carcieri is in reasonably good shape heading into his 2006 reelection bid, though the underlying Democratic nature of this mini-state should make for a highly competitive contest. Democrats might nominate Lt. Gov. Charles Fogarty to oppose Carcieri.