What Happened in the States

Democrats picked up governorships, state legislative chambers; Republican state court victories could have redistricting implications

Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia...

Georgia’s Runoff is the Opening Battle of the 2024 Senate Cycle

Democrats need a buffer as they face a daunting map

Dear Readers: Before we begin today, we wanted to express our deepest condolences over the murder of 3 UVA students -- Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D’Sean Perry -- and the wounding of 2 others earlier this week. We also appreciate the many expressions of sympathy we have received...

Midterm 2022: Not a Referendum, But a Choice

House, Senate remain up for grabs as GOP largely underperforms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans enjoyed a wave-style environment in a few states -- but Democrats showed impressive strength in much of the rest of the country. -- The GOP’s lack of discipline in candidate selection cost them a number of races. -- It remains too early to truly...

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain...

Six Days to Go

House rating changes; Senate, governor updates

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will...

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

One week out, rating changes in favor of 2 Sun Belt GOP governors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. -- In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. -- In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron...

The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

Checking in on the Senate with less than 2 weeks to go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled. -- Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals. --...

The Key to the Senate: Democrats vs. Biden Approval

They will need to run considerably ahead of the president to win

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article looks at the 2022 Senate races and compares current trial heat data to the president’s approval rating in these states. -- Historically, in-power incumbents outperform the sitting president’s job approval. This trend is continuing in 2022, and the average of this outperformance...

Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think

Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. A few weeks ago, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote about the 1978 and 1982 midterms. Lucca brings that...

The (Updated) Battle for the Statehouses

Chambers in key swing states like Michigan and Nevada get more competitive

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is updating his assessment of the race for state legislative control. He has also analyzed contests for attorney general, secretary of state, state supreme court, and statewide ballot issues....

Upset Alert

Where to look out for surprising results; rating changes in Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. -- We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s...

2022’s Ballot Measures

States are set to vote on a range of measures dealing with abortion, elections, marijuana, and more

Dear Readers: Join the Center for Politics next Tuesday, Oct. 18, for “Hacking Our Elections.” Center for Politics Scholar and leading election security expert Chris Krebs heads up this urgent and timely panel discussion on how the same threats that created Jan. 6 are still with us today. Joining Chris...