House Rating Changes: RGV versus RCV

Two House rating changes, both in favor of 2022 special election winners

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each area has key idiosyncrasies....

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Contests for governor in MI, PA look more secure for Democrats

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely...

Center for Politics to Honor U.S. Capitol and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers with First “Defender of Democracy” Award

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police and D.C. Metropolitan Police officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” award. This year’s inaugural award recipients will be...

Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022

Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards....

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 21, 2022

Senators and governors see smooth sailing in primaries, House members not as much

Dear Readers: Please join us, virtually, for a couple of special Center for Politics events this week. Today (Wednesday, Sept. 21) from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Peter Prindiville, a non-resident fellow at the Stanford Constitutional Law Center, will discuss their new book, The Constitution...

The Attorneys General: A Dozen Races Dot the Competitive Landscape

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson is analyzing several categories of state-level races for us this cycle. Today, he is doing his second assessment of this year’s attorney general races. He has also analyzed secretary of state, state legislative, and state supreme court races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS...

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 14, 2022

New England contests conclude the 2022 primary calendar; Rating change in NH-1

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our new “Politics is Everything” podcast, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik talked to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a Washington Post columnist, about the mixed signals in this year’s election and some of the advantages Republicans retain despite some...

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the...

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

House rating changes; MA-GOV to Safe Democratic; next week’s primaries

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans...

2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States

Voters picking different parties for Senate and governor is on the decline, but there will be at least some mixed decisions

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team....

Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

NY rating changes after impressive Democratic special election win; OH-SEN to Leans Republican

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing...