A First Look at 2024 State Supreme Court Contests

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The fate of Wisconsin's state supreme court will be decided next month. -- About two-thirds of the states will have supreme court elections next year. -- Key states with supreme court elections to watch in 2024 include Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio....

The Republican Presidential Primary: Still Early, but Maybe Getting Late

The field remains unformed, but if DeSantis is the real deal, there’s not much room for other challengers to Trump

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade. -- But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else...

Republicans Retain Edge in Electoral College Tie

GOP controls bare majority of House delegations and should continue to in the next Congress

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives elected in the 2024 election would decide the presidency. -- Republicans are very likely to continue to control enough House delegations to select the GOP nominee as the winner,...

Liz Cheney to Serve as Professor of Practice with UVA Center for Politics

Former Congresswoman to offer guest lectures in classes and public events as well as participate in research

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia announced Wednesday that former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) has accepted an appointment to serve as a Professor of Practice with the Center for Politics. The inaugural appointment is effective immediately and will run through the conclusion of the 2023 fall semester...

Notes on the State of Politics: March 1, 2023

Gaming out a possible Electoral College tie; Michigan Senate race takes shape; a look back at the VA-4 special

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. -- The Editors How likely is an Electoral College tie? The 2020 election came fairly close to ending in an Electoral College tie. While Joe Biden won the...

Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up

CA/NY vital for Democratic comeback; new maps in NC/OH could give Republicans a buffer

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up. -- Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the...

Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; House back to full strength, but not for long

Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. -- The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her...

Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left

Race, party, and ideological congruence in the American electorate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans. -- This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are...

The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far

Incumbents have had a lot of primary success lately

  Dear Readers: Join us next Wednesday, Feb. 22 for “A Conversation with Former/Future Republicans Bill Kristol and David Ramadan.” Kristol, a longtime political commentator, and Ramadan, a Center for Politics scholar and former member of the Virginia House of Delegates, will discuss the past and future of the Republican...

The State of Biden’s Next Campaign

The president has little real opposition in his own party but remains dependent on weaknesses across the aisle

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- President Biden’s successful State of the Union address suggested he’s full speed ahead on running for a second term. -- Despite polls showing that even many Democrats would prefer Biden not to run again, he has no real opposition within his own party -- and...

The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Over two decades, double-digit overperformances have become far less common

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common. -- Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead...

Initial Senate Ratings: Democrats Have a Lot of Defending to Do

Four seats in Democratic majority start as Toss-up or worse

Dear Readers: Please join us this week for a pair of special Center for Politics forums, both of which are free and open to the public and will also be livestreamed. Today (Tuesday, Jan. 24) at 4 p.m., we will host the ambassador of Chile, Juan Gabriel Valdés, at the...

2024 Governors Races: A First Look

And an updated word on Mississippi

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up. -- The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats. -- If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in...

JFK Records Reveal Intense Level of Secrecy by CIA During Investigation of Assassination

Hoffa Sought King’s Help in Getting Bobby Kennedy to “Lay Off”

Calling it “the tip of the iceberg,” Professor Larry J. Sabato and the Center for Politics at UVA released details today of new information discovered in records released by the National Archives last month from the collection of President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records. Among the findings was a previously...

The 2023 Governor Races

Democrats retain a slight edge in Kentucky, while Republicans favored in neighboring Deep South states

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year. -- In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench. --...