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GOV. CONFERENCE |
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R-T-D: Jul 21 |
Jul 19 |
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POLITICAL NOTEBOOK: GOVERNORS TAKE A LOOK AT LEGACIES
By Bob Gibson
Daily Progress Staff Writer
Jul 21, 2002
Larry J. Sabato, once dubbed the Mark McGwire of political analysts, knows how to attract governors, and even former and future would-be governors, to Charlottesville.
Sabato's fifth-annual Virginia Governor's Conference was a magnet for the mighty Thursday and Friday at the Boar's Head Inn, and a chance for past governors to sound off on their own accomplishments and others' undoing of them.
Unnamed recent governors - at least honoree and former governor Gerald L. Baliles did not mention any by name - have shortchanged the state's investments in transportation and education, Baliles told a packed ballroom crowd of 250.
"In the short run, a tax cut is easier, and often more politically popular, so long as the question is kept narrow, along the lines of 'Do you want free money?' Who would say no?" Baliles said.
"But when you broaden the question and explore the details, you find that there are serious, sometimes profound consequences, especially if a tax cut is enacted when there is debt overhang or pressing unmet societal needs," he said.
Keen investments
Baliles, who was governor from 1986 to 1990, found agreement at the conference sponsored by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, from former governor Linwood Holton and a sprinkling of other Republicans in attendance.
Holton, serving from 1970 to 1974 as the state's first GOP governor of the 20th century, echoed Baliles and praised the late former governor Mills E. Godwin for having the foresight to create Virginia's community college system.
"When you think of investments, you think mostly of money," Holton said as the conference's closing luncheon speaker Friday.
Although Godwin created the state sales tax to build the community college system, "he is remembered for creating a community college system that could not have been done without the sales tax," Holton said.
Likewise, Holton said Baliles will be remembered for improving a transportation system that was a major investment and not for the $450 million a year in additional sales and gas taxes that were needed to build it.
If Baliles had not made that investment in transportation, Holton asked, "what kind of gridlock would we be facing today?"
He said he decried "the demagoguery" that would be imposed on candidates running for office if they were forced to pledge not to raise taxes, even when the money is needed.
"That's simply an abdication of a major part of the description of the job he seeks," Holton said. "To exclude that possibility by demagoguery is detestable."
Expensive lunch
Holton joined lawmakers from both parties at the conference in warning that Virginia's revenue shortfall is about to grow to perhaps $600 million to $800 million through this year and next.
"It may be $900 million, or even a $1 billion deficit," Holton said. "Think where we'd be if we hadn't had these revenues. You don't get a free lunch."
Potential future candidates for governor at the conference included Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine of Richmond and former congressman L.F. Payne of Nelson County, both Democrats.
Payne said several Democrats are asking him to run for governor in 2005 and acknowledged that he's considering a bid.
Kaine, Holton's son-in-law, is the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. He surprised some Democrats on Friday by saying that the ethics committee of the House of Representatives should investigate the circumstances surrounding a Northern Virginia Democratic congressman's loan.
In a time of growing economic uncertainty and anger at corporate shenanigans, Kaine may be trying to score points as a clean Boy Scout type, the same way that Attorney General Jerry W. Kilgore scored points this spring by attacking GOP eavesdropping and showing former House Speaker S. Vance Wilkins Jr. the door.
Kaine said that Rep. James P. Moran Jr., D-Alexandria, committed an "error of judgment" by negotiating a 1998 loan from MBNA Corp. while supporting company-backed legislation. He said the error is so serious that the ethics committee should probe whether Moran's support was in any way linked to the loan.
Kaine is going after a potentially corrupt official while going after "the big boys" at the same time.
Sabato said the possibility of a Payne-Kaine race appears "50-50" at this point, and Payne's interest may depend on whether he is encouraged by Gov. Mark R. Warner, an Alexandria Democrat.
Baliles appeared to enjoy every minute of the two-day conference that touted a number of achievements of his administration, especially the speakers on half a dozen panels who called his leadership bold and "ahead of the curve."
His speech praised Holton and Godwin for just that type of leadership and seemed to single out former governor Jim Gilmore, whom he never named, as neither bold nor forward-looking.
From the 1960s onward, Virginia's governors believed "that to compete in a changing economy there must be good infrastructure and an educated citizenry, and it required building upon the accomplishments of one's predecessors, not tearing them down," Baliles said.
Baliles embraced all four referendums on the Nov. 5 ballot in Virginia, including the two statewide bond issues for higher education and parks and the two regional sales tax referendums for transportation in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.
The day he spoke, U.S. Sen. John W. Warner, R-Alexandria, delivered a similar message in favor of the transportation referendums.
Virginians may not have a lot of candidates on most ballots this fall, but the state's top political leaders seem to be finally agreeing to wage a real campaign for new investments in transportation, education and parks.
With polls showing at least one regional referendum in some trouble, the political leaders may be swinging for the fences and trying to hit a home run at a time the economy appears to be striking out.
Sabato, the McGwire of political swat, said at least one of the referendums is likely to pass. Just don't bet the mortgage on it.
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Copyright © 2003 U.Va. Center for Politics. All rights reserved.
