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Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
The brainchild of University of Virginia Center for Politics director Larry Sabato, the Crystal Ball started off as single pre-election seminars featuring the major presidential, gubernatorial, and Congressional contests from across the nation.
- In September 2002, the Center for Politics expanded the Crystal Ball into a complete website analyzing every single national gubernatorial and Senate race, and also kept tabs of the "Nifty 50" most competitive House races in the country. The website was a forecast of the 2002 midterm elections, and was updated frequently to reflect the changing political climate surrounding the races. The site has quickly grew into one of the most accurate, comprehensive election analysis resources on the web, successfully predicting the outcome in 32 of 36 gubernatorial contests, 32 of 34 U.S. Senate races and 433 of 435 U.S. House battles.
- In 2004, the Crystal Ball examined not only the usual Congressional and State House races, but also each state's presidential election. "Version 2.0" of the Crystal Ball, launched in January 2003, incorporated a fresh new look, and made the site more interactive and user-friendly. In all 530 of the combined races (House, Senate, Governor, Electoral College), the Crystal ball missed exactly five: One House race, one Senate race, one governorship and two states in the EC.
- The Crystal Ball was recognized in 2006 as having the most accurate predictions on the web, correctly picking the winner in eall but one gubernatiral contest and every Senate race, as well as projecting a net change of 29 seats in the House.
Election 2008: Let the Horserace Begin!
Building on an outstanding record for the 2006 races, the CB is gearing up for the 2008 election cycle. A significant site redesing, to launch in fall 2007, will add new features and a sleek feel that is both visually stimulating and highly imformative. Detailed sections on the races and candidates for President, Senate, House and Governor will be updated frequently as the election draws nearer.
But the Crystal Ball was created as much for political junkies as for students; as such, there are a slew of other resources for academics and educators. The CB Classroom includes a "tips and suggestions" section for students researching political campaigns. Plus, in order to help teachers bring the CB to students, the Center’s Youth Leadership Initiative created several lesson plans that complement the Crystal Ball. The Crystal Ball also has various charts, maps, and essays on topics ranging from the key factors in presidential elections to the history of midterm elections.
The Crystal Ball is provided as a free public service to help increase public awareness of national politics. All content herein may be used by educators, press and others with proper attribution. If you have any questions, please contact us.
Crystal Ball Website
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Copyright © 2007 U.Va. Center for Politics. All rights reserved.
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