ADC 2001: Analyzing the 2001 Elections and America's Political Landscape
(reprinted from the Center for Politics Summer 2002 Bulletin)
IN DECEMBER 2001, the Center hosted the fourth annual American Democracy Conference, a series of panel discussions that follow the November elections and assess the political landscape by fostering an open forum for some of the country's leading professionals to offer their insights. Co-sponsored by the nationally syndicated news review, The Hotline, the Center's success in providing a clear and thoughtful discussion was made possible by tapping knowledgeable panelists and moderators from a variety of compelling political disciplines. Each of the four panels discussed a wide range of provocative and critical issues affecting the lively political scene of 2001 and 2002, and the keynote dinner and address in the Rotunda Dome Room featured Virginia Governor-elect Mark Warner, who was elected in one of only two gubernatorial races in 2001.
Return of the Imperial Presidency?
The first panel of the conference, entitled "Return of the Imperial Presidency?" sought to understand the dynamics of a wartime executive branch. The panelists agreed that the September 11th attacks have definitively transformed President George W. Bush, the behavior of his administration, and its perception by the public. UVa professor Sidney Milkis emphasized that aside from being extraordinarily busy with wartime concerns, the President is also expected to provide leadership as the chief engineer of the Republican ship. The War on Terrorism, the panel concurred, has complicated the pressures for the President's time, energy, and focus. Operating now in the shadow of a national crisis, the President had a diminished presence in domestic politics (especially in the 2001 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia), noted John Dickerson, White House correspondent for TIME magazine.
With respect to the President's legislative agenda, Dickerson observed that, "the popularity of the war is not translating yet into legislative victories because there are members of Congress who can't find a way to translate the President's popularity into their own lives." Dickerson also noted the importance of Bush's continuing maintenance of approval and political capital and to satisfy the need for positive public opinion. A continuing theme throughout the panel was the reflection by John Harris of the Washington Post that "the first rule of journalism is, to first simplify and then exaggerate," underscoring the heightened need for media management and the attendant sensitivity of the President's media relations team.
Media Coverage in the New Political Landscape
The second panel of the day, "Media Coverage in the New Political Landscape," provided valuable insights on media coverage not only from the perspective of journalists, but also from the public's standpoint. Panelists included Craig Crawford from The Hotline; Fred Barnes, co-host of the Beltway Boys; Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times; Michael Doyle of McClatchy Papers; and Ann Klenk of the National Journal Group. The panelists gave credence to widely held perceptions that the television media often inappropriately covers political figures and events through redundancy, conjecture, and disproportionate attention. Barnes addressed these views in light of the Gary Condit scandal coverage by cable news outlets, pointing to "the never-ending need to fill a twenty-four hour news cycle with, if not facts, then speculation." Barnes asserted that cable networks are entirely driven by ratings. The momentum of particular stories, therefore, is merely a response by the cable news media to satisfy the demand of their viewers. Both Doyle and Klenk remarked that it is important to acknowledge the role subjects play in their own personality-driven coverage. Ed Chen added that he hoped the significant devotion of resources by cable networks to war coverage would elicit an end to the "era of celebrity journalism, which has gone on for a long time in this country."
Each panelist expressed their views on the media's wartime access to information, the reporter "pooling" system, and Vietnam as a source of the Pentagon's concern over the framing of military actions. They say the administration has also been resistant to "embedding," a system in which correspondents are placed within military units for extended periods of time. Different departments and branches of the military are more or less adept at public relations and image management. But institutions and authority figures, says Barnes, are enjoying a period of renewed status and enhanced positive image. In his assessment the media's reaction to the war on terrorism has driven it towards conservatism, seen in a reduction of government criticism, or what he called a "bad news bias."
Klenk and Doyle reacted to questions on cable news format and programming. They disagreed on the value and importance of scrolling messages, or "crawl" across the bottom of the news screen because of their opposing definitions of urgency. Final remarks by Chen illuminated the connection between politics, the media, and wartime reporting. He stated that the greatest obligation of any journalist should be to "raise doubts about the underlying assumptions of some of the policies being implemented." In this period of hostility, however, he suggested that responsibility is hampered by "an administration that is totally adverse to giving information out except when it absolutely serves their needs."
Republicans and Democrats
The afternoon sessions featured key players from both the Republican and Democratic national parties. The Republican panel, which was moderated by Vaughn Ververs of The Hotline, delved into the mechanics of campaign operations, image choices, and leadership. Large campaigns, according to media strategist Kim Alfano, are run as much by political consultants as they are by candidates. While the Republican National Committee sets the agenda, generates political positions, and puts a face on the White House, Alfano suggested that cooperation between national state committees is essential to a successful bid.
The panel agreed that electoral setbacks in Virginia's and New Jersey's gubernatorial races were due to financial constraints. Frank Donatelli of McGuireWoods Consulting also highlighted the significance of campaign financing, but felt that competition between parties was healthy in a democracy: "You should always be a little nervous and kind of keeping an eye on your wallet when Republicans and Democrats are agreeing. That is what bi-partisanship is." Chris LaCivita, political director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, underscored the value of image and particularly message management to a campaign like that of Virginia Governor Mark Warner, where traditional demographic barriers can be overcome by manipulating the traditional party message. When asked if Virginia's single-term rule is a detriment to whoever holds the governorship, LaCivita responded that the system is outdated given the complexities of holding office and the daunting transition process.
The panel underscored several keys to a winning campaign in the current political environment. "Campaigns are about contrasts", says LaCivita, but periods of national unity usually benefit incumbents. Most concurred that September 11th had stymied campaigns in some fashion, notably its impact on fundraising and advertisements. Republican pollster Glen Bolger summarized the four most crucial factors in elections as 1) candidate quality/recruitment, 2) resources available, 3) message focus, and 4) grassroots organization. The panelists generally agreed that recruitment efforts to find suitable candidates had slacked in recent years and competitive selection would be a top priority in the 2002 election cycle.
The Republican perspective on priorities after winning an election was deeply revealing as well. Bolger and Alfano discussed the political dimensions of governance. Alfano claimed that in the wake of a national crisis Americans are searching "for paternal images. We want strength. We want that protector image…Heroes don't whine. Leaders don't complain." Considerable efforts will be made to foster these images in Republican incumbents. A number of speakers concluded that President Bush would try to use his appeal and political capital to pass domestic initiatives without engaging in the kind of partisan politics that can easily damage his high approval rating.
Party Strategy
The last panel, moderated by Chuck Todd of The Hotline, laid out a chart of the Democratic Party's strategy and vision for the coming elections, covering a wide spectrum of political issues. The panelists concurred by default there is no singular face of the Democratic Party; rather, candidates would seek a pragmatic approaches with tailored messages for individual constituencies. The notion seemed not unlike the infa- mous declaration that candidates will "be their own" men and women. Steve Jarding, campaign manager for Warner, confirmed that the Warner campaign owed much of its success to reaching out to demographics traditionally neglected by the Democratic Party, such as rural, middle-age businessmen and agricultural industry voters.
The Democratic panel echoed the Republican sentiment that September 11th had an unmistakable impact on their campaigns, from ceasing all operations to displays of support for Republican leaders. Despite Todd's indication that a pre-crisis New York is an extraordinary source of financing for Democrats, Jim Jordan of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee admitted that the DSCC still expects to exceed its own projected revenues. The rudiments of campaign finance were a concern shared by proponents of both parties. Jordan commented sarcastically that in a state like South Dakota, where more dollars are spent than the number of citizens, "we ought to just start mailing money to people. It would be a lot more efficient."
There was consensus among the panelists with respect to the value of economic performance for incumbent Republicans. Jennie Backus of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said that many Democratic candidates are seeking to represent the Democrats as the "party of fiscal responsibility," citing the decisive role recessions have played in past mid-term congressional elections. Backus also notes a realignment of Republicans with Democratic positions in policy areas like military spending and Medicaid. Jarding observed that anytime a party achieves control of a political institution they tend to lose perspective, which is reflected in their policies and ultimately their electoral success.
Mark Warner
The conference ended that night with a dinner in the Rotunda Dome Room at the University of Virginia featuring Mark R. Warner, who was elected governor of Virginia on November 6, 2001. Warner discussed his successful strategy and urged Democrats in Virginia and across the country to "put aside politics as usual." The address, which was carried to a national audience via CSPAN, marked Warner's first major address since the election. The 2003 American Democracy Conference will be held in Washington, DC in December. For more information, please contact the Center or visit www.centerforpolitics. org.
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