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The Crystal Ball's First 2011 Take on 2012's Electoral College

With 17 months to go until November 2012, there is exactly one use for a current projection of the 2012 Electoral College results. This is merely a baseline from which we can judge more reliable projections made closer to the election. Where did we start–before we know the identity of the Republican nominee for president, the state of the economy in fall 2012 and many other critical facts?

And so, with that enormous caveat in mind, here is THE MAP.

If you INCLUDE the "Leans" states with the "Likely" and "Safe," the numbers are as follows:

  • 247 Democratic EVs
  • 180 Republican EVs
  • 111 Undecided

If you DO NOT INCLUDE the "Leans" states, i.e., just counting "Likely" and "Safe," the numbers are as follows:

  • 196 Democratic EVs
  • 170 Republican EVs
  • 172 Undecided