Sabato's Crystal Ball

Wisconsin (03) House 2010


Crystal Ball Outlook: Likely D

Democratic candidate: Ron Kind, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Dan Kapanke, Wisconsin State Senator

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball


Ron Kind first won election to the US House of Representative in an open race in 1996 following the retirement of incumbent Republican Steve Gunderson. Kind’s Republican predecessor had represented Wisconsin’s third district in Congress for 16 years. Ron Kind is seeking to extend his service in Congress to an 8th term in November. Kind is a Vice-Chair of the New Democrat Coalition, a House caucus of moderate, pro-growth Democrats. Kind has already raised a number of campaign issues ranging from energy independence to veterans issues, all of which he neatly ties back to his home district.

Although Republicans have until July 13 to announce their candidacy, Kind has only one serious Republican challenger ahead of Wisconsin’s September 14 primary. Republican Dan Kapanke is a Marine Corp veteran and current member of the Wisconsin State Senate. Kapanke won his first four-year term to the Senate in 2004 and was reelected in 2008. Kapanke remains behind Kind in fundraising efforts into the first quarter of the year, taking in less than half of the $842,000 Kind received in campaign receipts. Kapanke’s campaign platform revolves around accountability. He uses the issues of government debt and the economy as evidence that changes must be to be made in Washington.

Kind’s seven successful terms in Congress make the 3rd district of Wisconsin Likely Democratic.