Sabato's Crystal Ball

West Virginia (01) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Mike Oliverio, West Virginia State Senator

Republican candidate: David McKinley, engineer

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

George Bush and John McCain won by comfortable margins in the 2000, 2004, and 2008 Presidential elections, but two Democrats have represented West Virginia’s 1st district in the House since 1969. The dynamic duo in question is the father-son team of Bob and Alan Mollohan. Alan began his first term in 1983 following his father’s retirement. Since that time, the Republican competition in the district has been negligible.

Mollohan has faced numerous allegations of ethics violations and corruption during his tenure in Congress. Though he has never been indicted for any charges, he did surrender his position as the ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee in 2006 at the behest of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. The allegations had little effect on the 2006 and 2008 elections, which Mollohan easily won.

Possible competitors for Mollohan in November include Andrew Warner, Daniel Swisher, Thomas Stark, and David McKinley. Other Republicans primary candidates Cindy hall and Patricia Levenson have yet to bring in any campaign receipts.

The district has been historically non-competitive, with Alan Mollohan running unopposed in several elections. But this year, with Mollohan not in the mix, the district is a Toss-Up.