Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R
Democratic candidate: Glenn Nye, Incumbent
Republican candidate: Scott Rigell, Car Dealer
Recent updates from the Crystal Ball
Update: October 5, 2010
Glenn Nye was one of a host of Democrats to win a Republican seat in 2008, aided in part by Obama’s coattails, only to find themselves immediately in the GOP cross-hairs. While Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, Democratic enthusiasm has since plummeted while Republicans have rallied. As a result, Nye’s GOP challenger, car dealer Scott Rigell, will be running with the wind at his back. Nye has tried to boost his moderate and conservative credentials, voting against health care reform and a handful of other Democratic priorities, but voters may care more about his party affiliation than his voting record. There is a former Republican official, Kenny Golden, running as an Independent but so far he has shown few signs of fundraising or support and seems unlikely to siphon off enough votes from Rigell to make much of a difference. All the polling and news indicates the momentum belongs to Rigell, and the Crystal Ball rating moves from Toss-Up to Leans Republican.
Background:
2008 was a strong year for Democrats in Virginia’s second district. Though Bush won the district in both 2000 and 2004, Obama defeated John McCain with 50.5% of the district’s vote, Warner crushed his opponent with 65% of the vote, and Nye took 52.2% in the 2008 election. Nye’s Republican opponent Thelma Drake had faced slimming victory margins since her initial Congressional victory in 2004.
Glenn Nye unseated his two-term republican opponent in his first attempt at political office in 2008. Nye recently bucked the Democratic trend by voting against healthcare legislation. The move was not that surprising, as Nye is a member of the conservative Democrat’s Blue Dog Coalition. Nye objected to the cuts in funding for children’s hospitals, which would affect the Children’s Hospital of the King’s Daughters in his district. Nye was also concerned that military families covered by TRICARE might potentially be penalized by the bill. We will have to see how the health care legislation plays out before we will know what affect Nye’s “no” vote will have on the November elections.
Benito “Ben” Loyola, Bert Mizusawa, and Scott Rigell are the early frontrunners to face Nye following Virginia’s June 8 primary. Loyola and Rigell already have a distinct advantage in fundraising, although they both trail Nye in campaign receipts. Nye’s strong Republican competition make Virginia’s Second District Leans Republican.