Sabato's Crystal Ball

Texas (23) House 2010

Crystal Ball Outlook: Leans R

Democratic candidate: Ciro Rodriquez, Incumbent

Republican candidate: Quico Canseco

Recent updates from the Crystal Ball

Background:

The Republican-leaning district saw a 17% swing towards Democrats between the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. With the rare mid-decade redistricting in Texas and a big boost in turnout among Democrats in 2008, the true nature of the district is far from clear. Republicans, however, feel like they will have a leg up this year with very different turnout and a mood swing from voters. Republican nominee Quico Canseco has released two internal polls showing him with the lead, but that is the only polling available so far. Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez has already been booted from Congress once—from the 28th District following a heated post-redistricting race—and there are no assurances that he will not suffer the same fate again. This race is Leans Republican.